The American war imposed on Iran has yet to conclude, the reason for which remains Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Israeli lobby which persistently pressures US President Donald Trump to declare that they will not permit Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, and in case of no agreement Iran is also threatened with a larger and more devastating conflict than before, the purpose of which is to compel Iran to submit to terms of their own choosing.
In the context of the Iran war, contradictions frequently emerge in President Trump’s statements, where he says one thing in one statement and appears to take a U-turn from his position in the very next statement, because his decision-making is under the strong influence of hardline leaders of the Republican Party and the Israeli lobby, whose influence deeply penetrates the White House. Contrary to the past, the American government is making the most important decisions regarding Iran directly in the White House; earlier such important decisions were made through the State Department, while President Trump issues harsh statements, expressing strength amid concerns of his public ratings declining.
In the draft revised by the United States sent to Iran for a ceasefire, the three main points emphasized are control over uranium enrichment, the framework of the Strait of Hormuz, and conditions for the termination of the nuclear program; however, this does not seem to be anything other than a repetition of long-standing American demands. Encouragingly, despite harsh public rhetoric, communication between the two countries and back-channel negotiations are ongoing, which has also been confirmed by the Iranian foreign minister.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says that the exchange of messages between Iran and the United States for ending the war is still ongoing. Until we reach a clear result, it cannot be decided, and speculation made in this regard is irrelevant.
Meanwhile, a significant development has emerged on the Lebanon front. According to reports, US President Donald Trump held an unusually tense telephone conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after Israel announced plans to expand military operations in Lebanon and carry out strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs. According to sources cited in the report, Trump strongly objected to the proposed escalation, accusing Netanyahu of disregarding diplomatic efforts and warning that growing international criticism was increasingly isolating Israel.
The report further states that Trump personally intervened to prevent the immediate implementation of Israel’s plan to strike Beirut, and the conversation was described by informed officials as one of the most difficult exchanges between the two leaders since Trump’s return to office. However, Netanyahu’s office later maintained that Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon would continue and that action against Beirut remained possible if attacks by Hezbollah did not cease.
Shortly afterwards, President Trump announced that progress had been achieved in efforts to halt hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. According to his statement, Netanyahu assured him that the threatened advance towards Beirut’s southern suburbs would not proceed, while contacts conducted through intermediaries also resulted in Hezbollah agreeing to stop attacks. Trump described the discussions as productive and expressed hope that a wider escalation could be avoided.
These developments came at a time when concerns were growing that Israel’s planned expansion of operations in Lebanon could undermine ongoing regional diplomatic efforts and jeopardize broader ceasefire negotiations. Lebanese authorities also indicated that under the proposed arrangement, Israeli strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs would cease in exchange for Hezbollah refraining from attacks against Israel, creating cautious optimism that tensions on the Lebanon front could be reduced.
Recently, American military attacks on Iranian military installations, which were described by US CENTCOM as defensive actions, targeted military installations in the Iranian cities of Gorok and the island of Qeshm, and the Iranian military also targeted an American military base, which was carried out in response to an alleged attack on a communications installation in Iran’s southern region of Hormozgan. At the same time, Iran also executed two people in the context of the January protest events, who were accused of damaging government property and clashes with security forces. These internal measures indicate that at the state level Iran is not only struggling with external pressure but also with the remaining internal stability.
The geographical importance of the Strait of Hormuz has taken a central position in this crisis. This is the passage through which a large amount of global oil passes, and its partial or complete closure not only affects energy prices but is also affecting the supply chain of industrial and agricultural components such as helium, potassium, sulfur, and fertilizers. Its direct consequence is manifesting in the form of global inflation.
The situation in Lebanon is also extremely tense, because Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has instructed the army to further expand actions against Hezbollah positions and to gain control over strategically high locations and important geographical points in southern Lebanon. As a result of this policy, the Israeli Defense Forces have not only intensified operations in border areas but have also seized some important historically and militarily significant locations inside Lebanon, among which the strategic position of Beaufort Castle is particularly prominent. The capture of the castle is not merely a military defeat for Lebanon, but its geographical importance makes it a central point overlooking all of southern Lebanon. From this castle, extensive surrounding areas and several routes of southern Lebanon can be monitored, giving Israel a clear advantage in ground control.
A new diplomatic effort has also emerged from the United States on this front, in which a plan has been presented to reduce tensions between Lebanon and Israel. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has held separate talks with the leadership of both countries; however, the ground situation remains tense. It should be noted that one of the initial conditions of the ceasefire with Iran also included a truce in Lebanon, meaning that Israel’s aggression in Lebanon implies that the ceasefire agreement with the United States and Iran is not being respected.
The situation in Israel’s northern areas is also unstable. A rocket fired from Lebanon was intercepted by the Israeli defense system, while sirens were also reported in some areas. This demonstrates that border security is completely unstable and the situation may worsen at any time.
The possibilities of a military operation against Iran are very low but not impossible; however, the United States can only consider an attack on Iran as a last resort because, if we mention the economic situation of the US, its debt has reached approximately 125 percent of its total national output, which in the 1970s was about 35 percent, and accordingly not only is inflation increasing but the global supply of essential goods is also being affected. In the United States, the question is also being raised whether decisions there are made for the interests of the American people or the protection of Israeli interests is given the highest priority. Thus, mounting pressure against the Israeli lobby is strengthening hopes for the end of the Iran war.
The question is whether the United States and the world can bear this global crisis that is ongoing due to the Iran war, because the intermittent complete and partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz is increasing not only oil shortages but also deficiencies of essential goods such as helium, potassium, sulfur, and fertilizers, and accordingly the inflation rate is also rising.
International affairs experts believe that due to the Iran war, the Middle East has already been pushed back by 2 to 3 years; if this war breaks out again, this region could be pushed back by 10 to 15 years, consequently the world can no longer bear the Iran war, and therefore a settlement of the Iran war within a few days and a permanent ceasefire between the two countries could prove to be the necessary and most important means of saving this region and the global economy from destruction, devastation, and chaos.
Translated by M.M. News Editorial Team
