Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has arrived in Islamabad, where he was received by Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar and Chief of Defence Forces Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir. According to current reports, this visit is not merely symbolic but part of a broader diplomatic process, in which Pakistan is playing the role of mediator in order to bring the ongoing tensions between Iran and the United States onto a negotiating track.
According to the latest developments, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trump’s advisor Jared Kushner were also expected to arrive in Islamabad to hold indirect or possibly direct talks with the Iranian delegation. However, Iran’s official position has stated that no confirmation has been given of any direct meeting with the United States in Islamabad, and it is more likely that contacts will take place through Pakistan’s mediation. For this reason, the situation remains unclear and dynamic at this stage.
It should be noted that during the ongoing ceasefire between Iran and the United States, both countries continue to exchange statements against each other. President Trump’s unexpected statements and, on the other side, Iran’s carefully calibrated foreign policy-based statements are being issued; however, there are also some personalities in Iran who are responding in kind to President Trump’s verbal attacks, which appears to be fueling concern in the region.
Tension remains on multiple fronts simultaneously in the region. In southern Lebanon, three deaths have been reported as a result of an Israeli airstrike, despite which the ceasefire is apparently in effect, but in practice violations continue. On the other hand, Hezbollah has also claimed to have fired rockets towards northern Israel, and said that this action was taken in response to Israeli violations and attacks on southern Lebanon. This situation has raised serious and growing questions about the future of the ceasefire.
In the matter of Iran, an increase in US pressure has also been seen. President Trump has threatened to destroy any boat laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and has increased pressure to reopen this important maritime passage. Tehran has alleged that the United States is exerting economic pressure on Iran through its naval presence in the region and an alleged blockade. According to Iranian analysts, these actions are part of preparations for a possible military confrontation rather than an economic strangulation strategy.
Recently, President Donald Trump had clearly said that he would destroy Iranian civilization, which, in the opinion of analysts, meant that nuclear weapons could be used against Iran; however, in a recent statement, the US president clarified that the United States has no intention of using any nuclear weapons against Iran. President Trump has not yet lifted the blockade from the Strait of Hormuz, and he fears that if he does so, the American public and the world may assume that the president of the most powerful country in the world has capitulated before the Iranian government, therefore he is avoiding doing so.
The US military has indicated targeting Iran, but it must be remembered that the Strait of Hormuz is a total 33-kilometer-wide route, of which only a 3-kilometer route is such through which ships can pass; therefore, from a naval and aerial perspective, defeating Iran is difficult, and until the American nation is ready to bear hundreds and thousands of bodies, this threat cannot be effective, and until there is a ground war, defeating Iran is not possible. Even then, if the US president swallows this bitter pill, another poisonous dose awaits him, that he should be ready to lose the midterm elections as well, because the American people did not themselves enter the war against Iran; rather, Israel was the cause, and the American people have certainly become conscious enough that they never vote for a president who gets soldiers killed in unwanted operations.
On the other hand, Iran’s senior leadership has rejected US claims of internal division or disagreement and has made it clear that the country’s political leadership is firmly united. Along with this, former US officials and ambassadors have also pointed out that Iran has the ability to withstand sanctions and pressure and can find alternative routes for oil exports, which may limit the effectiveness of US pressure.
Alarmingly, there has also been an increase in US military presence in the region, and after the deployment of an aircraft carrier named George Bush, three major US naval fleets are now present in the Middle East. This development has further increased concerns about the balance of power in the region and possible conflict. Political debate is also ongoing in the United States regarding Iran. More than a dozen Democratic members of Congress have urged the administration to temporarily stop the deportation of approximately 12,000 Iranian students and other individuals, because they may face risks upon return.
The global energy market is also being affected by this tension. Due to arrests and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices have increased beyond 106 dollars per barrel. According to experts, if the situation worsens further, oil prices may reach 200 dollars, which could become a severe and painful crisis for the global economy, which the international community has neither seen nor heard before, and neither have Middle Eastern or Western countries made any preparation to deal with this crisis.
