In the context of the ongoing war in the Middle East and escalating regional tensions, the mutual defence agreement between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan has emerged as an important and positive development amid the rapidly shifting political and defence landscape in the region.
On Friday, the three countries signed the “Mecca Joint Defence Agreement”, under which all three parties reaffirmed their commitment to further bolstering cooperation in the fields of security and defence.
This agreement has come at a time when the Middle East is already going through a deepening crisis, and tensions between Iran, the United States and Israel have plunged the entire region into a highly volatile situation. Although the parties to the agreement have refrained from presenting it as an alliance against any specific country, experts say that this development is potentially marking a turning point in the regional balance of power.
For Pakistan, this agreement holds particular importance because, on the one hand, the country is a close defence partner of Saudi Arabia, while on the other hand, it also has geographical and diplomatic relations with Iran. In such a situation, the fundamental objective of Islamabad’s policy is to de-escalate tensions in the region, promote negotiations and play its diplomatic role for peace and stability while maintaining engagement with all sides.
The different capabilities of the three countries in the agreement complement and reinforce one another. Pakistan has an experienced army that has extensive exposure to wartime conditions, defence production capabilities and nuclear power. Türkiye possesses significant military capabilities because of its modern drone technology, defence industry and NATO membership, while Saudi Arabia, besides being a major economic power in the region, is a founding member of OPEC and is in a position to mobilise substantial financial resources for defence cooperation.
This development is also being viewed in the context of the evolving US policy towards the Middle East. In some countries of the region, there is a growing perception that instead of relying solely on external powers for their security, regional actors must increasingly pursue alternative avenues of mutual cooperation and peace at the regional level.
However, it would be premature to immediately describe the Mecca Defence Agreement as the beginning of a new broad military bloc. It is still unclear to what extent the other two countries would be legally or practically obligated to assist one of the three countries if it were targeted in a regional conflict. This is why experts describe the agreement as an important defence and diplomatic message, but remain circumspect about its tangible implications.
On the other hand, the ongoing war between Iran and the United States and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz have further compounded the regional crisis. The spokesperson for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has made it clear that the decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz will not automatically be made as a result of any agreement reached with Oman; rather, the United States will have to fully acquiesce to Iran’s conditions. According to Iranian officials, a general framework has been agreed upon between Oman and Iran, but it still awaits high-level approval.
Iran wants to keep its position clearly strong regarding the Strait of Hormuz. According to Tehran, alternative arrangements will be made for maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz instead of the existing route, and in this regard, bilateral agreement between Iran and Oman has been given priority. This shows that Iran wants to use the Strait of Hormuz not merely as a commercial passage but also as a potent strategic pressure point.
Although Iran’s Foreign Minister has indicated that an agreement with Oman on the management of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to be concluded at the earliest, this by no means signifies that the Strait will immediately be reopened. According to the latest information, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, has stated that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until Iran’s frozen assets are released, US forces are withdrawn from the surrounding areas, a ceasefire is implemented on all fronts, and credible assurances are provided against any renewed attack — and that the United States has no other option either. This suggests that Iran has recognised that US weapons and military equipment in the region have been reduced to critically low levels, while petroleum product reserves within the United States have also reportedly fallen to their lowest levels, with estimates suggesting that only around seven to ten days of reserves remain. Against this backdrop, Iran has put forward a set of demands, none of which are entirely new, as they are already incorporated into the already-agreed 14-point Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding. However, one key demand being strongly emphasised by Iran is that war-related losses must be compensated before the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened.
Meanwhile, Oman is once again playing an important role in facilitating communication and negotiations between Iran and the United States. The issue of the Strait of Hormuz is not limited to the Middle East because a significant share of global energy flows is linked to this passage. If tensions continue for a long period, pressure on oil prices, global trade, maritime traffic and developing economies could mount considerably. In such circumstances, the best course for Pakistan is to maintain diplomatic balance while keeping its national interests in view. Defence and economic relations with Saudi Arabia are important for Pakistan, while geographical proximity to Iran and the need for peace in the region also compel Pakistan to adopt a measured and carefully calibrated policy.
The Mecca Defence Agreement provides Pakistan with an opportunity to further underscore its strategic and diplomatic relevance in the region, but Pakistan’s real success will lie not only in the military alliance but also in the capability to play an effective role in defusing tensions among the region’s competing stakeholders and paving the way for negotiations. The current situation demands that the countries of the region give priority to diplomacy, mutual trust and regional cooperation instead of drifting towards another major confrontation. It is also in Pakistan’s interest that maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is restored, war and tensions decrease, and an environment is created in the Middle East that can provide stability not only to the region but also to the global economy. And certainly, Pakistan’s role is viewed with growing appreciation and regard, and following the Battle of Truth itself, the emergence of a more assertive trajectory in Pakistan’s foreign policy has increased Pakistan’s diplomatic standing, and particularly, the role of Pakistan’s Chief of Defence Forces, Syed Asim Munir, in increasing Pakistan’s military importance is of considerable strategic significance. Now the nation and the country are looking forward to when and over what period the country can receive its benefits, but before that, it is also very necessary to undertake serious deliberation on the country’s own institutional framework, particularly its administrative affairs; otherwise, despite the increase in the country’s global prestige, achieving the goals of national development under the outdated administrative system may not become much easier.
