The Middle East, grappling with the intensity of the Iran-US war, currently stands at the precipice of a volcano which, if it erupts, its effects and implications could engulf not just this region but the economy and politics of the entire world, because the ongoing tension between the United States and Iran has entered a new phase.
In recent days, American forces targeted dozens of sites inside Iran, and Tehran also responded tit for tat, carrying out retaliatory strikes on American bases present in Gulf countries, redoubling the tension in the region.
After US President Donald Trump fanned the spark of war, US CENTCOM carried out relentless and ferocious attacks on Iran’s southern coasts for three consecutive nights. American missiles inscribed new chronicles of devastation at strategic locations like Bandar Abbas, Qeshm, Kish, and Abu Musa. However, the most chilling aspect of this entire confrontation is President Trump’s threat in which he said that we are going to target central Iran’s Kuh-e-Kolang Gazla. The Iran memorandum of understanding was a test, and Iran failed to honor it.
This impregnably fortified Iranian nuclear facility, located south of Tehran, has been carved hundreds of meters deep beneath layers of solid granite. According to American intelligence, this location is the hidden linchpin of Iran’s nuclear program that has become indispensable for America to destroy. President Trump’s unequivocal statement that “we will finish off Pickaxe Mountain” is a telling sign that Washington is now steeling its resolve to cross Iran’s red line, as a result of which the region could be plunged into a grave calamity.
On the other hand, Iran too, instead of becoming a silent spectator, has adopted the policy of “meeting a brick with a stone.” The Revolutionary Guards unleashed a barrage of drones and missiles on American military installations present in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, and here a curious paradox has emerged: while America is deploying the most exorbitantly priced interceptor missiles worth millions of dollars, Iran is putting the Gulf countries’ defense systems to the test through Shahed drones manufactured at a cost of merely 30 thousand dollars, and this unwanted war is morphing into a horrific nightmare for the Gulf countries because their defense stockpiles are rapidly dwindling.
Not only this, but the Gulf countries are currently caught between a rock and a hard place, because experts believe that the presence of American military bases in these countries provides them no protection but rather renders them an easy prey for Iranian attacks. Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates have installed the most sophisticated systems like Patriot and THAAD for their defense, but the onslaught of Iranian missiles has cast doubt on their effectiveness. The injury of three people, including a child, from an Iranian missile falling in Qatar is testament to the fact that this war is no longer confined within borders.
During this crisis, a major shift was witnessed on the diplomatic front when Qatar withdrew from mediation due to the recent tension and erosion of trust, while Qatar had long been playing the role of a bridge between America and Iran. In such a situation, Pakistan’s role has taken on pivotal importance, and it is a formidable test for Pakistan’s political and military leadership as to how they bring the two traditional rivals back to the negotiating table. According to sources, the ambiguity present in clause 5 of the ceasefire memorandum of understanding, and the absence of direct contact between US CENTCOM and the Revolutionary Guards breeding misunderstandings, has become a cause of further stoking this fire.
It would not be amiss to call the Strait of Hormuz the backbone of the global economy, while this sea route is currently presenting the scene of a war zone, because Iran’s attacks on commercial ships and America’s announcement of a complete blockade of Iranian ports have once again driven up oil prices in the world market, and shipping passing through the Strait of Hormuz stands at the brink of complete closure. President Trump’s demand that Gulf countries pay America 20 percent of the value of their trade goods in exchange for their protection could prove to be a new economic strain for the countries of the region.
Here, this fact also cannot be overlooked that at a time when the region is engulfed in war, Qatar is in mourning over the death of its founding Emir, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani. The arrival in Doha of leaders from around the world, including Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, to pay their respects on his death affirmed that Qatar remains a hub of diplomacy even at this time. However, the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, now has to bear the weight of his great father’s grief on one hand, and on the other hand shield his country from the fire of the Iran-US war which has reached its borders.
Amid the shadow of this horrific confrontation unfolding in the Gulf, the negotiations taking place between Lebanon and Israel appear to be a faint glimmer of hope for peace. Though the purpose of these negotiations, brokered by America, is the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon and the disarming of Hezbollah, the ground realities are that Israel is still continuing bombing inside Lebanon, and Hezbollah is not ready to lay down arms at any cost.
Overall, today the Middle East stands at such a crossroads where every single moment is precious for quelling the blazing flames of war. On one hand is the American president’s belligerent tone, and on the other, Iran’s strategic patience now appears to be wearing thin. If Pakistan and other world powers can still swiftly wield their influence to successfully bring the parties back to the table, then the hope for the recovery of the global economy, which is passing through trial after trial and teetering, could be saved from fading out — perhaps this is the reason Pakistan has not yet announced stepping back from mediation and continues to persevere in its efforts. Undoubtedly, this is the world’s most intricate test for Pakistan, and it remains to be seen how Pakistan draws Iran and America back from the blazing flames of war toward peace, because Pakistan has astonished the entire world in the past too by pushing both countries back from war. Perhaps Pakistan’s political and military leadership will once again succeed in pulling off some such diplomatic feat, which the entire world today desperately needs.
Translated by M.M. News Editorial Team
