With an indefinite ceasefire at the request of Pakistan by US President Donald Trump, the Iran war has transitioned into a new phase.
In fact, there are many complexities with President Trump, and an important issue is that he finds himself constrained by his own circumstances. He suddenly generates a great deal of sensationalism through suddenly issued statements, but in this there is very little manifestation of national position or foreign policy articulation. This is observed by all his analysts, political scientists, and diplomats. And from the subsequent events during the Iran war, it has also become evident that the way Trump is attempting to conduct diplomacy with an approach of coercion and threats, in this way diplomacy becomes erratic, and perhaps the way his favored team advises him is also not correct.
The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz in the US and other countries, which has triggered inflation, economic downturn, and partial recession, may prove difficult to contain in the coming months or years. Donald Trump’s indefinite extension of the ceasefire does not encompass the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, while this blockade by the US is completely in clear violation of international law and bears the character of piracy by a power like the US in the Middle East.
This entire context has become even more intricate at this time because the maritime situation in the Gulf is rapidly escalating, and Iran is directly alleging the US that the blockade of Iranian ports has effectively stalled peace negotiations. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has stated unequivocally that Tehran has always sought negotiations, however “breaches of trust, blockade, and threats” are the biggest obstacles in any progress.
Differences within the US regarding President Trump’s policy are also increasingly visible. Under significant reshuffles in the Pentagon, the US Navy Secretary has been removed, while reshuffles of 34 other senior officials have also been carried out. Along with this, the US Senate has rejected a resolution to limit war powers against Iran, which indicates lack of full consensus in Washington on Iran policy.
The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament’s stance is that unless the US naval blockade remains, it is not possible to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. According to him, this action is a flagrant violation of the bilateral ceasefire. Meanwhile, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards have also claimed that they have detained two foreign ships in the Strait of Hormuz, while another ship was fired upon when it allegedly breached maritime boundaries.
Along with maritime tension, diplomatic war is also continuing in the region. The US administration has clarified that no definitive deadline has been set for peace plans or ceasefire with Iran. According to White House spokesperson Caroline Leavitt, the decision will rest entirely with the authority of President Trump and he will decide its timing. Under this same policy, Washington is conveying the impression that by increasing pressure, Iran will be brought to the negotiating table.
In fact, the remarks are being issued by Baqer Qalibaf to sustain morale of the Iranian nation, which is devastated and reduced to dust and blood due to American and Israeli attacks, while Baqer Qalibaf has been part of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and his statements must be duly considered, which reflect the military narrative. The US President asserts that talks will take place by Friday and additional progress between Iran and the US in the second round is also possible, from which it can be hoped that both countries will move towards a permanent ceasefire, and the author of these lines is also cautiously optimistic in this regard that the efforts for mediation by Pakistan are likely to prove fruitful.
Tension in the region is not confined solely to Iran and the US, but the tenuous ceasefire ongoing between Lebanon and Israel is also under strain. In American and regional negotiation processes it has been suggested that the absence of Hezbollah is undermining the negotiation framework. The Israeli Foreign Minister claims that their main disagreement is not with the Lebanese government but with the existence of Hezbollah, which is a fundamental obstacle in the path of peace.
Meanwhile, during Israeli attacks in Lebanon, the journalistic community has also been targeted. Following air strikes in southern Lebanon, five people were struck, including a prominent journalist, while their colleague, a freelance reporter, was injured. Reports indicate that attacks persisted even during rescue operations, even ambulances were targeted, due to which the rescue operation was hampered.
On the other hand, due to ongoing US naval pressure, 31 ships have so far been turned back, most of which are oil tankers. This operation is being conducted with the support of thousands of US troops, warships, and air resources. US officials state that this pressure is essential to bring Iran back to negotiations, however Iran views this strategy as a blatant aggression and violation of ceasefire.
The current situation indicates that the tension between Iran, the US, and their regional allies has entered a highly delicate phase where on one side hopes for ceasefire and negotiations remain, while on the other side ground realities are steadily increasing confrontation and mistrust. In such a situation, any possible progress will hinge not only on decisions of Washington and Tehran but also on regional powers and mediation efforts that can avert this crisis from a major confrontation, and Pakistan at this time has become the focal point of Iran and the US to the entire Middle East and even the whole world. One thing is clear that the world cannot afford to bear prolonged economic pain due to the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, it can be strongly anticipated that a permanent ceasefire is inevitable, but when? the coming days will reveal.
