US-Israel war against Iran entering into uncertainty on the eleventh day, the war theatre is heating up and as a result, there is no sign of regional stability in the near future.
After the appointment of Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, a noticeable change is also being felt in the political and military environment within the country. According to analysts, the same ideological mindset that the former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei possessed is being carried forward with more enthusiasm by the new leadership. Therefore, expecting any soft attitude from Iran in the current circumstances could be futile, as Iran is pressed against the wall and left with no choice but to fight; consequently, the likelihood of greater severity and resistance in its response increases.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has made it clear that Iran will continue this war for as long as necessary, which raises questions about U.S. President Donald Trump’s claim that the war could end “soon” as he said on Monday, however he also acknowledged that it will not end within this week which is contradiction to his earlier statement. He said that the United States has so far targeted more than five thousand Iranian targets and that a large portion of Iran’s navy, air force, and missile launchers has been destroyed, but despite this the United States still wants to achieve a “final victory.”
Even during the heating up of the conflict, an atmosphere of resistance inside Iran was still expected to emerge. On the other hand, millions of people in Tehran held rallies to express support for the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, and it was described as a clear message to the countries attacking Iran and to those who were expecting regime change through Iranian protesters. The spokesperson of the Iranian Foreign Ministry has accused the United States of planning to divide Iran and seize its oil wealth.
There is a state of uncertainty, and it appears that U.S. President Donald Trump himself is also facing confusion. The reason for this is that in the president’s view Iran’s 90 percent military capability has been reduced, whereas Iran continues to launch increasingly large missiles. Because of this, Israel’s losses — which are heavily censored — are still being reported as colossal damage in Tel Aviv and Haifa. The question therefore arises: will Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu succeed in bringing about regime change in Iran?
Different opinions are being expressed on this matter, but in my opinion, even if there were chances of regime change earlier, it now appears very difficult. This is because the bombing and destruction by external powers such as the United States and Israel has awakened the patriotism of the Iranian nation, and it seems that regime change will no longer be an easy task. However, if the situation worsens further — for example if ethnic sentiments among the Baloch and Kurds are fueled through the CIA and Mossad — a situation of civil war could emerge. Even in that case, the regime supported by majority of motivated Iranian national in support of Supreme Leader is most likely to prevail.
In the war theater, the pace of attacks on Iran has intensified. In Iran’s western city of Arak, at least five people were killed and several others injured in a U.S. and Israeli air strike on a residential building. Similarly, in eastern Tehran at least forty people lost their lives in attacks on residential areas. According to Iranian authorities, more than 1,255 people have been killed and nearly ten thousand injured since the beginning of the war. Speaker of the Iranian parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has announced a “strong response” to attacks on civilian populations.
Iran has also continued its retaliatory actions. The Iranian military says it targeted oil and gas refineries and fuel storage facilities in the Israeli city of Haifa with drone attacks. Israeli military efforts are ongoing to intercept missiles fired by Iran.
According to experts, Iran’s targeting of U.S. bases or facilities present in the region may be aimed at neutralizing centers from which attacks or planning against Iran are being conducted. At the same time, concerns are also being expressed that if Gulf countries directly join this war, public reaction in the region against war could intensify.
The attack on Iran by the United States and Israel, along with the targeting of Iran from their bases in Arab countries, appears to be a conspiracy whose result would inevitably be Iranian attacks on those bases with missiles and drones — something Iran has indeed carried out. However, the second part of that conspiracy could not be implemented because countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates expressed concern over Iran’s attacks and issued strong statements, but did not consider it appropriate to target Iran themselves or with the help of the United States. Doing so could have further intensified the flames of war in the region, and the economic destruction currently faced by the Middle East could have become far worse — as Israel and the United States had envisioned. But today this conspiracy has been exposed, and the region’s good fortune has been that all countries are following a policy of avoiding jumping into the fire of war, which may gradually lead to the extinguishing of the flames of conflict.
However, Israel and the US seem to be pushing the region into a theatre of war against Iran. The future will determine to what extent the Gulf states can absorb the shocks and deflect the pressure from the US and Israel.
