The Meteorological Department has released its weather outlook for the next three months, including June, warning that most parts of the country are likely to receive below-normal rainfall and experience above-normal temperatures. This may intensify heatwaves, water shortages, and challenges for the agriculture sector.
According to the department, Pakistan received an average of 22.4 mm rainfall in May 2026, which is about 10% below normal, while the average temperature stood at 29.2°C, 0.8°C above the usual level.
Regionally, Punjab recorded 29.7 mm rainfall, 19% above normal. In contrast, Sindh received only 0.3 mm rainfall, which is 91% below normal. Balochistan saw a 71% deficit, while Gilgit-Baltistan received 33% above-normal rainfall.
The June 2026 forecast suggests rainfall will remain near normal or slightly below average in most areas, with the sharpest decline expected in northeastern Punjab, Kashmir, and adjoining parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. However, Gilgit-Baltistan and upper KP may receive above-normal rainfall.
The department said El Niño conditions have re-emerged in the Pacific and are expected to persist, while the Indian Ocean Dipole remains neutral. These factors may lead to uneven rainfall distribution across the country.
Temperatures in June are expected to remain above normal nationwide, with heatwave conditions likely in southern Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan.
For March–May 2026, Pakistan received 148 mm rainfall, 26% above normal, while temperatures were 1°C higher than average. However, conditions are expected to shift during June–August, with below-normal rainfall likely in much of Punjab, Sindh, lower KP, and Balochistan.
The department warned that reduced rainfall could affect Kharif crop sowing and early growth, increasing reliance on irrigation. Meanwhile, heavier rainfall in northern areas could accelerate glacier melt and raise the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), flash floods, and landslides.
