The Middle East has been immersed in a crisis for the past 100 days that has not only the regional but also the global political, military, and economic situation transformed.
Rising tensions between Iran and the United States, Israel’s continued military aggression, interdictions targeting vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and the ongoing confrontation in Lebanon have turned this conflict into a situation resembling a limited form of global war.
Although multiple announcements of ceasefire have been made, on-ground realities indicate that intermittent actions from both sides have persisted in undermining the ceasefire, and in this entire scenario Pakistan has emerged as a country that, along with traditional diplomacy, is also increasingly engaged in ending tensions through military diplomacy.
According to CNN, a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran hinges on the requirement that the Trump administration agrees to release $24 billion in immobilized Iranian assets. Mohsen Rezaei, adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, warned on Friday that negotiations are stagnant and that US President Trump must break this deadlock, while this decision is now in Trump’s hands. According to reports, Iran has demanded that immediately after a temporary agreement with the United States, $12 billion in immobilized funds be released, while another $12 billion be paid in a later phase. On the other hand, US officials fear that unfreezing any financial funds at this stage could eliminate an important pressure or bargaining leverage on Iran. Trump has demanded that any new agreement should appear much stricter than the 2015 nuclear deal and should not give any impression that Iran is being persuaded by giving money.
If the root of this crisis is attributed to Israeli and American provocation, it would not be wrong. In response, Iran manifested its defensive response by using thousands of drones and missiles, and in the initial phase Israeli leadership gravely miscalculated Iran’s military capability, because Israel had made the US believe that Iran could be defeated within a few days; however, time proved that this assessment was not consistent with reality. The war became prolonged, and Iran not only succeeded in maintaining its resistance capability but also continued its military strategy effectively.
In recent days, the United States asserted that its forces shot down two Iranian drones in the Strait of Hormuz that posed a threat to international maritime traffic, and this action further exacerbated tensions in an already strained environment, while Iran vehemently condemned this action as a clear violation of international law and an act of provocation. In contrast, reports of Iranian missile attacks towards Bahrain and Kuwait also caused concern in Gulf countries, after which these countries immediately condemned the situation and called for reducing tensions.
Despite all this situation, the fact remains that neither the United States nor Iran seems capable of sustaining a long-term war. Iran is facing billions of dollars in economic implications and losses due to disruptions in its ports, trade activities, and energy exports, while the Strait of Hormuz is a highly important route for global energy supply, and its closure or restricted activity is directly affecting the global economy. On the other hand, the United States has already spent substantial financial resources on this war, while rising inflation at the domestic level, political pressure, and upcoming elections are posing additional challenges for President Trump’s administration.
In this context, reports have also emerged that US officials are deliberating on using frozen Iranian assets to compensate for damages in Gulf allied countries, which would would be entirely unacceptable for Iran, because the billions of dollars in losses Iran has suffered due to the war would then also have to be compensated by the United States and Israel, meaning additional complications may emerge in the expected deal. A day earlier, circles associated with the Iranian leadership had stated that a permanent peace agreement for a ceasefire could be conditioned on the return of Iran’s frozen billions of dollars in assets. This shows that along with the military front, economic and diplomatic fronts are also generating disputes, the results of which could have a deep impact on the future situation.
Meanwhile, information from close advisers of the US President also indicates visits to US nuclear facilities and exploration of potential concessions to Iran through a technical mechanism framework, suggesting that backchannel negotiations are underway, and Iran’s special demands regarding the Strait of Hormuz are also under consideration, and it is being suggested that in the future, it will be necessary to give importance to these demands for a comprehensive agreement.
Pakistan’s role in this entire crisis assumes extraordinary significance because Pakistan is the only country that has close relations with Iran on one hand, while also maintaining excellent diplomatic relations with the United States on the other, and this balanced positioning presents Pakistan as a viable mediator. Global powers including Russia and China, along with several other countries, have also acknowledged Pakistan’s diplomatic efforts, which has increased the international importance of Pakistan’s role.
In this regard, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi’s visit to Tehran is regarded as an important development. He met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and also conveyed a special letter from Field Marshal Asim Munir for the Supreme leadership. This development indicates that Pakistan is undertaking tangible diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions and pave the way for a permanent ceasefire. It is also worth noting that Field Marshal Asim Munir has previously led institutions such as ISI and MI and has extensive experience in military diplomacy. This is why Pakistan’s position appears unique compared to other countries in the region including India, and its diplomatic contacts are being taken seriously.
The situation in Lebanon also remains volatile. The killing of Lebanese army officers and personnel in Israeli attacks, aerial operations in various areas, and Hezbollah’s drone attacks on Israeli military centers indicate that a parallel conflict is also ongoing with full intensity in Lebanon. Several regional countries including Jordan have described the attacks on Lebanon as a violation of its sovereignty and stability and have called for an immediate cessation of aggression.
Indirect negotiations at the global level, intermittent military actions, and strong statements indicate that although a deficit of trust persists, both major powers seek to avoid a complete and prolonged war. This is why, despite strong rhetoric, diplomatic contacts have not been fully severed, and negotiations continue through various channels.
Overall, the Middle East has transitioned into a new political and military phase where, along with the use of force, diplomacy has also assumed decisive importance. Both Iran and the United States feel the need for an acceptable agreement due to economic, political, and internal pressures, while the restoration of sensitive global trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz is also considered essential for the global economy. In such circumstances, Pakistan’s mediation efforts are emerging as a pivotal factor for peace in the region, and if current diplomatic activities succeed, they may not only improve Iran-US relations but also open new paths for stability across the entire Middle East.
