Will Trump Doom Iran? High Stakes Ahead

U.S. President Donald Trump has once again resorted to dangerous rhetoric regarding Iran, saying that he is on the verge of a decision and that very big things could unfold in the coming days. Trump mentioned his various options for Iran, including severe economic pressure, a deal, and the complete destruction of Iran. In the same statement, he also indicated his willingness to meet Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. This situation once again makes it clear that both military pressure and negotiations are simultaneously being considered in U.S. policy.
This statement comes nearly seven months into the war launched against Iran by the United States and Israel. According to The Guardian, the United States and Iran have once again traded airstrikes in recent days, while fears of a wider war have intensified after Iran targeted U.S. interests in the region.
Trump’s sudden return to Washington from Camp David is also being read as significant against the backdrop of this growing tension. According to international media, along with this development, Iran also claimed that the United States was preparing fresh bombing runs, while Iran vowed to target U.S. bases in the event of a possible attack.
However, the flip side of the situation is diplomacy. Trump has expressed willingness for a possible meeting with the Iranian president, and earlier the U.S. president had also said that the war could be nearing its endgame. However, according to analysts, Tehran has yet to confirm the resumption of direct negotiations, and Iranian officials say that Iran’s conditions must be met before any new negotiating process.
Pakistan’s role in this crisis has also come into sharp focus. Chief of Defence Forces Field Marshal Asim Munir has visited Iran several times since April and kept channels open with Tehran, while Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar has also remained in continuous contact with the Saudi and Turkish leadership. These diplomatic activities are continuing at a time when Pakistan, on the one hand, wants to maintain its longstanding and historic relations with Iran and, on the other hand, is navigating fresh global tensions and complexities because of its defence agreement with Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, the mutual defence agreement reached in Mecca between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye has also become a new factor in the regional situation. International media have warned that if fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis intensifies further, the agreement could increase practical pressure on Pakistan.
A string of conditions has emerged from Iran for negotiations with the United States. According to recent reports, Tehran has placed demands including a ceasefire, the restoration of frozen Iranian assets, and an end to the U.S. naval blockade firmly on the table. Iranian officials have also confirmed that seven conditions were conveyed to the United States, although all the conditions have not been officially made public. Therefore, it would be misleading to present these demands as a single final four-point or seven-point agreement.
Meanwhile, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz also remains a stumbling block to the success of negotiations. According to Al Jazeera, a key sticking point between the United States and Iran is under what conditions the movement of commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz will continue. In September, talks between Iran and Oman were also put on hold due to consultations with regional countries.
In the latest situation, the movement of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped sharply. Reuters says that at the end of last week, just 17 commodity-carrying ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz, whereas before the war, an average of around 125 ships passed through this route daily. Despite this, some Gulf oil exports are still flowing.
The U.S. government has cleared a core Iranian delegation consisting of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and other key members to travel to New York, although curbs have been clamped on the delegation’s movement and other activities. The U.S. State Department cited its responsibilities as the host country of the United Nations as the reason for this decision. This certainly opens the door to the possibility that the United Nations General Assembly could provide an important opportunity for diplomatic contacts, particularly against the backdrop of President Trump expressing willingness to meet his Iranian counterpart, Pezeshkian.
Another aspect of the Iran war that is important in its own right is that U.S. President Trump is currently under mounting political pressure because the U.S. midterm elections will be held on November 3, 2026, in which all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and approximately one-third of the Senate seats will be up for election, and fears are that President Trump could lose these elections because of the Iran war and rising inflation. However, this question is not as important as the question of whether President Trump takes his “big decision” regarding Iran toward military action or the destruction of Iran, or gives diplomacy one more chance. On the one hand, military tensions between the United States, Israel and Iran continue, while on the other hand, diplomatic contacts through Pakistan, Oman, Qatar and other countries are also continuing.
Meanwhile, the most worrying prospect for the international community is that further disruption in important maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb could jolt global energy, trade and prices. Therefore, at the current stage, the success of the diplomatic path rather than further expansion of the war will be crucial not only for the United States and Iran but also for the entire region and the global economy.