One of the biggest failures of the Trump administration was handling the Iran crisis. The US president pulled out of the nuclear deal and both sides come to the brink of war before cooler minds prevailed. Now with Trump on his way off, the situation in the Middle East could drastically change once again.
President-elect Joe Biden has reiterated that US would rejoin the nuclear agreement if Iran agrees to strict compliance. He said that a return to the deal is the best way to avoid a nuclear arms race in the region. This would mean lifting the sanctions Trump imposed after he unilaterally withdrew from the deal and imposed the ‘maximum pressure’ campaign.
Iran has expressed willingness to return to the deal if Biden lifts sanctions. However, the situation is much different with the recent assassination of Iran’s top scientist Mohsin Fakhrizadeh. Iran has blamed Israel for the killing but it could also complicate relations with the Biden administration. Biden also wants Saudi Arabia and UAE to be added among the original signatories of the nuclear deal. This is likely to be an uphill task convincingGulf Arab nations to provide sanctions relief to Iran.
The Trump administration seems to have taken an aggressive stance against Iran in its waning days possibly to prevent Biden from lifting sanctions. Iran’s foreign minister has warned of a ‘psychological warfare’ over the nuclear scientist’s death, who was long suspected of leading the nation’s military nuclear programme and was termed a threat by the Israeli prime minister.
Iran has vowed ‘harsh revenge’ for the killing but it will choose to respond diplomatically rather than militarily. Iran knows that Israel would be seeking to escalate tensions in Trump’s final days to make negotiations more difficult for Biden. Iranian president has publically stated that Iran will not fall for Israel’s trap by responding carelessly.
Iran’s response echoes the promise made after General QasimSoleimani was assassinated by a US drone strike in Baghdad earlier this year. Iran fired missiles at US troops in response but there were no casualties. It may not respond to the nuclear scientist killing as the situation is much different and will rather wait until Trump leaves office.
The region risk even more instability if all stakeholders do not stop their rhetoric for regional hegemony and domination. Biden has immense responsibility and a huge task ahead of him to ensure that Iran halts its nuclear programme and Gulf nations are also content.
