The Iranian president has instructed diplomats to engage in fair and equitable talks with the United States on the nuclear program, which has somewhat reduced the escalating tensions in the region. Meanwhile, in its Monday report, Al Jazeera stated that the United States has deployed warships in the region, and President Trump has repeatedly issued threats. However, according to information available up to Monday, backchannel diplomacy between the two countries is ongoing, providing hope that the situation is heading toward further improvement.
On Monday, The New York Times also confirmed that the US President Donald Trump’s envoy and the Iranian foreign minister will meet in Türkiye on Friday, where discussions are expected on demands related to nuclear enrichment in the context of American threats. Earlier, it had also come to light that countries such as Pakistan, Egypt, Jordan, and Türkiye are playing a mediating role and do not want to become part of any direct confrontation themselves.
From Iran’s side, it has been announced with unusual clarity that if it is attacked from any land, airspace, or sea route, it will target not only the attacker but also the country providing facilitation. Recent naval exercises with Russia and China, an increase in missile and drone capabilities, and reports of keeping the defense industry active twenty-four hours a day and seven days a week indicate that Iran is not merely relying on statements. A claim has also emerged that Iran has acquired the capability to launch a large number of drones simultaneously, which is crucial for maintaining the balance of power in the region. On the other hand, US activities have also remained unusual. The deployment of aerial refueling aircraft, electronic surveillance systems, cyber warfare resources, and naval and air assets in the region indicates that the United States is fully monitoring every Iranian military movement and considers Iranian activities a threat to regional peace and security, as well as, apparently, to US national security.
On one side, Iran’s area is more than 1.648 million square kilometers, while, on the other side, the United States covers 9.83 million square kilometers, and the minimum distance between the two is also around 10,500 kilometers. The question, then, is what kind of national security concern the United States was suffering from a country so much smaller and so far away from itself, and why it was issuing threats to attack it at all. The answer lies in the US policy of supporting Israel, which has always viewed Iran as a major threat to itself and has seen it preparing to become a nuclear power. However, now that Iran has also signaled flexibility in the nuclear matter in accordance with international laws, the United States—whose potential targets could have included Iranian nuclear facilities, Revolutionary Guard centers, and the military command structure—may come into the mood to review its threatening posture, in light of which signs of global economic recovery have also become visible. Nevertheless, the risk of an unexpected war as a result of any misunderstanding and inflammatory rhetoric still persistently exists, and this cannot be denied. Russia and China do provide diplomatic support to Iran, but the likelihood of direct military intervention is low. Although the United States appears ahead in military preparations, the concerns of regional countries, the possible effects on the global economy, and Iran’s clear retaliatory strategy are the biggest obstacles to the path on which the United States wants to proceed to target Iran with attacks, whose objective is clearly to weaken Iran and establish not only its own but also Israel’s dominance in the region.
Now the question is what will be discussed in the meeting to be held on Friday. The United States wants to impose four conditions: first, that enriched uranium be transferred out of Iran; second, that enrichment be halted; third, that limits be placed on long-range missiles; and fourth, that cooperation with regional proxies be ended. If the question is asked about the chances of a nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran and whether the United States will attack Iran, the estimate of the chances of an attack has reached up to 70 percent, while the chances of reconciliation between the two countries are 30 percent or even less. Earlier, on January 31, the Iranian foreign minister said that there is a big difference between diplomacy and dictation and that the United States should refrain from threatening us. Iranian officials say that if they are attacked, the entire region will be engulfed in war. Meanwhile, the US aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln has moved even closer to Iran.
Iran has always been a homogeneous society that has endured hardships and sufferings. Now there is also corruption in Iran, for which evidence exists. Then, due to economic problems, people have also become disenchanted with the government. However, if there is an external aggressor, they once again unite and remove internal grievances, even though last year the Iranian currency lost up to 40 percent of its value and, over the past five years, the currency has been devalued by 800 percent, due to which the public is fearful of the government. The Americans think that as soon as they attack, protesters will once again come out of their homes and make life unbearable for the Iranian government, and during this time the US Delta Force that arrested Venezuela’s President Maduro will try to arrest the Iranian supreme leader along with other leadership figures. However, considering Iran an easy target would be a major mistake by President Trump, because Iran is not Venezuela, and the regional situation can be improved with positive progress in the negotiations to be held on Friday, although the chances of this are limited.
