Chinese geopolitical analyst Jiang Xueqin has once again drawn media attention for his third prediction regarding a potential US defeat in a war against Iran.
In 2024, Jiang made three major forecasts. The first was that Donald Trump would win re-election and return to the presidency of the United States. The second was that Trump would initiate a war with Iran. Both predictions, according to supporters, have materialised. Jiang continues to stand by his third forecast: that the United States would be defeated in such a conflict, while Iran would ultimately prevail.
He argues that a US defeat would significantly weaken American global dominance, enabling China and Russia to emerge as stronger global powers.
Speaking this week on the programme Breaking Points, Jiang said that, based on his analysis of the war, Iran holds significant strategic advantages over the United States. He described the conflict as a war of attrition and exchange of losses, adding that Iran has been preparing for such a confrontation for the past two decades.
Jiang further stated that, from the Iranian perspective, the conflict represents a religious struggle against what they describe as the “Great Satan”. He referred to prior military exercises and noted that a 12-day conflict last June allowed Iran to analyse Israeli and American offensive capabilities, giving it additional time to prepare for renewed hostilities.
According to Jiang, Iran’s regional allies — including Houthis, Hezbollah and Hamas — have developed strategies aimed at weakening US power.
He also claimed that Iran is effectively waging a broader campaign targeting the global economy. He suggested that US bases in Gulf countries, along with critical energy infrastructure, are being targeted. He warned that desalination plants, which supply around 60 per cent of water in Gulf states, could become future targets.
As an example, he said that if a relatively low-cost drone were to strike a desalination facility in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, a city of around 10 million people could face severe water shortages within two weeks. He further asserted that Iran has moved to close the Strait of Hormuz.
