US troops begin Afghan withdrawal

US troops have started to leave Afghanistan for initial withdrawal required under the US-Taliban peace deal. The withdrawal is a significant moment as the retreat is seen as a victory for the Afghan Taliban amid political chaos and also heralds the dawn of a new era for the war-torn country.

Under the agreement, the US will cut the number of forces in the country to 8,600 with the next 135 days. The US has around 12,000 troops in Afghanistan while a complete withdrawal would be made within 14 months as part of the deal signed in Doha last month.

As the US began a phased withdrawal, there is a new political crisis in Afghanistan. After a delay of over five months, Ashraf Ghani was sworn in as President of Afghanistan for a second term in a ceremony rocked by a powerful explosion. His main political rival Abdullah Abdullah held a parallel inauguration just a few blocks always. The presidential candidate had refused to accept the election results which he lost by a narrow margin. There are now two presidents and a new political crisis has created a stalemate.

The Afghan government was supposed to commence dialogue with Taliban on March 10 which has been delayed after Ashraf Ghani’s reluctance to abide by a prisoner swap. He now appears to show some leverage saying a mechanism has been reached and a presidential decree would be issued to release at least 1,000 Taliban prisoners this week.

The peace deal appeared fragile last week as violence returned to the country after a powerful explosion shook Kabul, and US forces launched a missile strike against Taliban fighters attacking Afghan forces. Despite the political stalemate and violence, the US has not tied the withdrawal to stability or the outcome of the intra-Afghan peace talks, but rather a commitment from Taliban that Afghan soil will not be used to threaten US and its allies.

Another major concern is the eventual return of Taliban rule in Afghanistan which is Ashraf Ghani’s worst nightmare. The USA and Russia have vowed not to allow the restoration of an ‘Islamic Emirate’ in Afghanistan. In a rare show of cooperation, both countries said reaffirmed that such a government is not recognised by the international community or the UN. The Taliban insist it is their duty to restore an ‘Islamic government’ after US troops withdraw from Afghanistan.

Afghanistan is not politically or economically stable, violence can return anytime, and there is the threat of spoilers in the peace process. If the political crisis is not resolved and dialogue is not conclusive, the country risks further descent into chaos and peace would remain elusive for ordinary Afghans.