Pakistan’s geopolitical importance and Chinese bailout?

Given its geographical location, Pakistan has emerged as a pivotal country of immense geostrategic importance for both China and the United States.

China has maintained the trajectory of its relations with Pakistan, and has come up to the expectations, while the United States has only been able to maintain tactical relations with ripples from time to time. The primary focus of American foreign policy is to counter China’s influence, as China not only poses an economic threat but also raises concerns about the gradual decline of the United States as a superpower. A defense agreement was signed between the US, UK, and Australia about a year and a half ago, to have complete control over the Chinese shipping lines.

These waterways serve as crucial passages for China’s goods, services, and particularly oil transportation. The US aims to establish a monopoly over these waterways and other routes, ensuring complete control over traffic whenever and however it desires. Although China’s defense budget is significantly smaller than that of the US (less than $100 billion compared to the US’s $700 billion), the strengthening relations between China and Russia remain a concern for the United States.

Russia has already proven to be a thorn in the side of the US, NATO, and Western countries, creating a predicament that cannot be easily resolved. Now, China and Russia have joined forces in opposition to the US. It is important to remember that military supremacy is always essential for safeguarding a country’s economic interests or its overall superiority. If the US wishes to maintain its commanding position, it must possess the capability to assert authority when necessary or be prepared for China or Russia to challenge its power by enhancing its own military supremacy.

The only concern is that with Russian support, China is gradually reaching parity with US military power, particularly in terms of space military capabilities. Once this equilibrium is achieved, it will become increasingly challenging to impede China’s ascent to becoming the world’s leading economy. Consequently, the US will inevitably struggle to maintain its preeminence as a global superpower. Since 2013, China has already held the position of the world’s most powerful country in terms of trade, boasting an economic size of $17.6 trillion, a fact that certainly worries the United States. China is rapidly advancing in all trade sectors and is poised to become the leading country of this era. China and Russia together appear to be forming the most crucial alliance worldwide.

These two nations are posing considerable challenges for the United States, both on the ground and in space. China and Russia, together, seem to be gaining superiority over the US in the realm of space activities. In the future, military hegemony will likely revolve more around space power than economic interests. However, due to its geographical location, Pakistan currently finds itself at a disadvantage. Sooner or later, Pakistan will have to decide where its allegiance lies. It is imperative to emphasize that China is Pakistan’s strategic partner, while relations with the US have encountered setbacks.

Pakistan shares fraternal relations with China, and China is expanding its economic interests in Pakistan and other regions of the world through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The BRI is a $4 trillion project, with $1 trillion already invested globally and the remaining $3 trillion yet to be spent. Gwadar, in particular, has attracted attention from the United States and India, with India serving as America’s regional ally. India has been spending approximately $800 million on proxy wars. Pakistan, grappling with economic challenges, has reached a breaking point that the entire nation finds unbearable, significantly impacting the majority of its population.

My personal analysis suggests that China will have to shoulder Pakistan’s burden, even in light of its own interests. If the International Monetary Fund (IMF) denies loans to Pakistan, a scenario that seems likely considering the significant influence of the United States within the IMF, it becomes evident how the US can sway decision-making within international financial institutions. This has been a long-standing policy of the United States. The US military manual itself acknowledges that institutions such as the World Bank and the IMF can be effectively utilized to achieve foreign policy objectives.

It is important to recognize that in international relations, no country can be deemed a permanent friend or enemy. Countries make decisions and shift alliances based on mutual interests. While China is currently a friendly country to Pakistan, it is essential to understand that China, like any other nation, prioritizes protecting its own interests. China’s interest in Pakistan is currently at its peak due to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and other economic ventures. Recent developments such as the winding down of Shell Company operations in Pakistan and the arrival of Russian oil shipments underscore the increasing economic ties between China, Russia, and Pakistan. Azerbaijan has also pledged to supply liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Pakistan.

Considering all these factors, China is compelled to strengthen its cooperation with Pakistan not only out of friendship but also to safeguard its own interests. While our strategic relations with China remain strong, we must acknowledge that China seeks to protect its investments and maximize the benefits it derives from its economic and geopolitical endeavors. I do not imply that China has no choice but to assist Pakistan, but it is evident that China would prefer to support Pakistan in times of hardship to advance its own economic and geopolitical interests.