Earlier this year, on February 13, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived at the White House and presented U.S. President Donald Trump with a military plan claiming that a decisive operation against Iran could be completed within just a few days. The plan asserted that by targeting Iran’s Supreme Leader along with the country’s top military and political leadership, the regional balance of power could be decisively tilted in favor of Israel and the United States.
This was not really a plan, but rather a grandiose illusion that was presented to the United States, and the American president agreed to implement it. In essence, Washington was assured that if the United States provided full support, Iran would not be able to resist for long. However, the actual situation proved to be exactly the opposite. The war continued to grind on, casualties and costs kept increasing, and the American leadership realized that what had been perceived as an operation lasting only a few days had turned into a complex and ruinously expensive conflict. Reports later emerged that President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance spoke to the Israeli leadership in a stern tone and expressed frustration over Netanyahu’s overly optimistic plan because, contrary to its promises, the United States found itself entangled into a quagmire facing political, military, and economic difficulties.
American analysts believe that President Trump ultimately had no viable option other than signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Iran. This situation was considered remarkable because the United States is regarded as the world’s greatest military power, yet despite prolonged tensions and military operations against Iran, it failed to achieve all of its political and military objectives. During this period, billions of dollars in expenditures, attacks on American military installations across the region, and mounting global uncertainty convinced Washington that it was impossible to win this war through military force alone.
Subsequently, diplomatic efforts and mediation by Pakistan and later Qatar helped thaw the atmosphere between Iran and the United States, leading both countries to sign a Memorandum of Understanding. This development was described as a watershed moment in the months-long tensions in the Middle East because it not only raised hopes for a ceasefire but also strengthened the perception that major regional conflicts could be resolved not only through the use of force but also through diplomacy. According to many observers, the war also had far-reaching implications for the global balance of power and further intensified the debate that the center of global power is gradually shifting from the Global North to the Global South.
Not only that, but the outcome of the war also stunned political and military circles around the world because, on one hand, Iran suffered heavy human and material losses. According to various estimates, approximately 120,000 buildings were destroyed, while nearly 4,000 people perished. On the other hand, through its military capabilities and retaliatory operations, Iran created the impression that it remained capable of maintaining its defensive strategy despite overwhelming pressure. For this reason, numerous analysts argued that Iran has now emerged not merely as a developing country struggling with economic difficulties, but as a regional power that can no longer be easily ignored.
Another significant aspect of the conflict affected the countries that allowed the United States to use their military bases. Several Gulf states suffered direct or indirect losses in the fields of security, trade, and investment. In particular, there emerged a perception that the wartime environment had severely dented the economic momentum of the United Arab Emirates, and that if the conflict had continued for a longer period, the consequences could have been far more devastating. This situation also raised the question of whether the military bases established to protect Gulf countries had themselves succeeded in ensuring their own security and preserving stability in the region.
Although the signing of the MoU had raised hopes that both countries would move toward reducing tensions, recent events have once again shattered that assumption. Just a few days after signing the Memorandum of Understanding, the United States and Iran once again engaged in direct military operations against each other. The escalation began with a drone attack on a commercial cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, which President Donald Trump squarely blamed on Iran. Washington described the incident as a violation of the spirit of the ceasefire and reconciliation, and according to a statement by U.S. CENTCOM, the U.S. military immediately launched retaliatory strikes against missile and drone storage facilities as well as coastal radar installations inside Iran. The U.S. military later released footage of these operations and claimed that the strikes were defensive in nature and intended to degrade Iran’s capability to carry out future attacks. Vice President J.D. Vance also stated in clear terms that if American interests or forces were targeted, “violence will be met with violence.”
Iran not only described these attacks as a flagrant violation of the United Nations Charter but also maintained that the United States had openly violated the Memorandum of Understanding. Condemning the American operations in the strongest terms, the Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that despite pursuing diplomacy, the use of force was eroding mutual trust between the two countries. According to Iranian state media, a projectile landed near a location close to the city of Sirik near the Strait of Hormuz, while Qeshm Island was also targeted. However, local authorities stated that the port did not suffer any notable damage.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy announced that it had also targeted American military installations in the region in response to the U.S. attacks. Although no immediate confirmation emerged of any successful strikes against American targets, Tehran made it clear through this announcement that it reserves the right to respond to such attacks. The Revolutionary Guards also claimed that under the Memorandum of Understanding, Iran possesses the authority to monitor and enforce regulations on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and therefore activities in this vital waterway should be viewed within the context of Iran’s sovereignty.
Once again, the Strait of Hormuz became the nerve center of global attention, and United Nations spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric emphasized that this crucial waterway must remain open and that all parties should honor the agreements they have made. Meanwhile, reports from Tehran indicated that Iran also rejected the impression that any direct military communication had been forged between the United States and Iran to reduce tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, another important diplomatic development took place between Lebanon and Israel, where a framework agreement was reached through American mediation. According to Washington, the purpose of the agreement was to end the ongoing tensions between the two countries. However, Hezbollah flatly rejected the agreement, arguing that it would only strengthen Israeli interests. Critics contend that instead of requiring a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces, the agreement merely calls for their phased redeployment, resulting in bitter disagreements within Lebanon as well.
Following all of these latest developments, the most pressing question that arises is whether Iran and the United States are once again heading toward a full-scale war. Diplomatic sources, however, continue to indicate that negotiations will proceed because both sides have effectively settled the score by carrying out measured attacks against one another. At present, the parties are continuing their negotiations, and the writing on the wall is that President Trump fully understands that if the path of reconciliation is abandoned, people will once again face economic hardship. As a result, he could be headed toward defeat in the midterm elections, which could ultimately trigger impeachment proceedings and other legal consequences. Therefore, ending the war and achieving a permanent ceasefire will become the inescapable destiny of both this region and Donald Trump, while Iran, too, will finally be able to breathe a sigh of relief.
