The National Emergencies Operation Center (NEOC), under the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), has issued an advisory urging the public to take precautionary measures in anticipation of moderate to heavy monsoon rains expected to affect multiple regions of the country between Sunday to Tuesday, (July 13 and 17, 2025).
The National Emergency Operations Center (NEOC) has issued a hydrological outlook and an impact-based weather alert for three days commencing Sunday, July 13, 2025. The forecast indicates moderate to heavy monsoon rainfall across various regions of Pakistan, attributed to intensified moisture inflow from the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, coupled with an active westerly wave system.
As a consequence, substantial rises in river flows are expected, most notably in the Indus, Kabul, Jhelum (upstream of Mangla), and Chenab rivers.
Currently, Tarbela, Taunsa, and Guddu barrages are at low flood levels, while Kalabagh and Chashma are at medium flood levels. Taunsa is also expected to rise to medium flood level, with low to medium flows likely to persist in Indus river stations throughout the coming week.
River Chenab at Marala and Khanki is expected to reach low flood levels, while River Kabul at Nowshera is also forecasted to attain low flood levels. Rain-induced swelling is anticipated in River Swat and River Panjkora, along with their associated streams and nullahs.
Torrential flows in D.G. Khan and Rajanpur torrents are likely to re-activate with medium to high flows during the upcoming weather spell. In Balochistan, streams and nullahs in north-eastern districts, including Jhal Magsi, Kachhi, Sibi, Qila Saifullah, Zhob, and Musakhel, may experience high flows. Additionally, localized flash flooding is expected in river networks of southern Balochistan districts such as Khuzdar, Awaran, Lasbela, and Qalat. At present, Tarbela Dam is at 74% storage capacity and Mangla Dam is at 44%.
NDMA advises residents living near rivers, streams, and nullahs to stay vigilant for sudden surges in water levels, especially during heavy rainfall and nighttime. Communities in flood-prone areas should identify safe evacuation routes, secure household items, vehicles, and livestock at elevated locations, and prepare emergency kits with essential supplies, including food, water, and medicines sufficient for 3 to 5 days. District Administration, particularly in northeastern and central Punjab, should prepare dewatering equipment to manage water accumulation due to heavy downpours.
The public is strongly urged to remain updated through official flood warnings broadcast via television, radio, mobile alerts, and the Pak NDMA Disaster Alert mobile application. All citizens are reminded to avoid crossing causeways, low bridges, and flooded roads. NDMA remains in close coordination with relevant authorities to monitor the situation and ensure the timely dissemination of alerts.
