India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty undoubtedly reflects its aggression and extremism, but it is important to note that India cannot unilaterally suspend or revoke this treaty.
The Indus Waters Treaty is an internationally recognized and guaranteed agreement. If India suspends or cancels the treaty unilaterally, then all other treaties it has made with other countries could also be called into question. It should also be remembered that the World Bank is a guarantor of the Indus Waters Treaty.
This raises the question: Can India unilaterally cancel or suspend the Indus Waters Treaty? Under the terms of the agreement, India does not have the legal authority to suspend or revoke the treaty on its own.
Article 12(4) of the treaty only grants the right to terminate the agreement if both India and Pakistan agree to do so in writing. In other words, for the Indus Waters Treaty to be terminated, a termination agreement must be drafted and ratified by both states. There is no clause in the treaty that allows for unilateral “suspension.” It is of indefinite duration and was never intended to be limited by time or specific events. Both countries are equally bound by the Indus Waters Treaty, and withdrawing from it unilaterally constitutes a violation.
If India stops adhering to the treaty under the pretense of “termination,” “suspension,” “withdrawal,” or “revocation,” it essentially means that India has decided to obstruct the flow of water into Pakistan. In other words, what India calls “revocation” or “withdrawal,” Pakistan will interpret as a “violation.” Another question arises: what happens if India stops the downstream flow of water to Pakistan? Could this set a precedent for China upstream?
If India attempts to block the flow of rivers to Pakistan, it would not only violate international water laws but also set a dangerous precedent. According to international law, an upstream country (like India) does not have the right to stop water to a downstream country (like Pakistan), whether or not the Indus Waters Treaty is in place.
If India takes such a step, it would establish a new regional norm that could be used as a precedent in international law. China, for instance, could use India’s actions as justification to block the flow of the Brahmaputra River.
Thus, India’s move would not only be dangerous for Pakistan but could also be harmful for India itself, as powers like China are closely watching the situation. The Indus Waters Treaty, established in 1960, is a strong and enduring agreement that does not contain any provision for unilateral suspension or termination. Amendments to the treaty are only possible through mutual agreement and formal ratification by both parties.
India’s unilateral suspension of the treaty would not only violate established mechanisms such as the Permanent Indus Commission, neutral experts, or the Court of Arbitration for dispute resolution, but it would also go against the very spirit of the agreement. This treaty has survived several wars and periods of political tension, further reinforcing its legal and moral strength.
