Qatar Steps in: Iran Crisis Reaches a Breaking Point

The ongoing war between the United States and Iran has reached a new and perilous turning point, where diplomacy, military pressure, the dismantling of the nuclear programme, and the global economy have become interconnected. US President Donald Trump’s tough statements against Iran and the possibility of renewed military action have sent shockwaves through the region, while Qatar has once again emerged as an important channel of communication between Washington and Tehran. The meeting between Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani and President Trump at the White House today, November 9, has taken on extraordinary significance.
According to Reuters, the Qatari Prime Minister is also set to sit down with US Vice President JD Vance, in addition to President Trump. Qatar has been mediating indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran for the past several weeks. The primary objective of these negotiations is to clear the path to a ceasefire, find a solution to the nuclear dispute, and restore trust between the two countries. However, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has bluntly stated that no substantial progress has been made in the negotiations so far, and significant differences remain between the demands of the two countries.
According to a November 9 report by US broadcaster Axios, the Qatari Prime Minister is pressing President Trump to allow more time so that a workable agreement can be hammered out through negotiations. The report also mentions a proposed two-day plan under which the first phase could involve lifting the US naval blockade and releasing some of Iran’s frozen assets, while Iran could agree to invite the International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect its nuclear facilities.
Among the root causes of the dispute between the United States and Iran, the most important is Iran’s nuclear programme. Washington and Israel maintain that Iran must be fully barred from enriching uranium and acquiring the capability to manufacture nuclear weapons. Tehran, however, insists its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes under international law and its status as a signatory to the NPT, and considers uranium enrichment within prescribed limits to be its right.
In this dispute, the stockpile of approximately 441 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent looms large. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran possessed 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent in June 2025. According to the Agency’s June 2026 report, due to military attacks and the lack of access for inspections, the Agency has been unable to verify the current quantity, location, or condition of this material. This uncertainty is fuelling US and Israeli concerns. The Israeli Prime Minister has even gone so far as to declare that Iran has already become capable of producing nuclear weapons, after which it will use these weapons against Israel.
On the other hand, walking away from uranium enrichment altogether would be a major political and strategic decision for Iran. That is why the fundamental disagreement between the two sides is not limited to the level of enrichment; it also concerns who will monitor Iran’s nuclear programme, where the stockpile will be kept, and what workable and ironclad restrictions will be imposed on future enrichment permissions to ensure that Iran never becomes capable of developing nuclear weapons.
The United States has also taken an unprecedented move to obtain information about Iran’s nuclear programme. On November 7, US CENTCOM announced that, under the US State Department’s Rewards for Justice programme, individuals providing information about Iran’s nuclear programme could be offered rewards worth up to $20 million and potentially relocation to a secure location. This offer includes information about Iran’s nuclear facilities, equipment, relevant officials, and individuals associated with its scientific sector. The offer comes at a time when independent monitoring and verification of Iran’s nuclear programme have become impossible.
President Donald Trump has time and again claimed that US attacks have badly battered Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities. According to him, Iran’s military installations, missile systems, and other important targets have been wiped out. However, a country’s military capability cannot be measured solely by the number of installations destroyed.
Iran has held on to the capability to maintain pressure in the region through missiles, drones, coastal defence systems, and asymmetric naval warfare strategies. Therefore, despite the success of airstrikes, Iran’s ability to launch retaliatory attacks remains intact and has, in fact, become more potent than before.
Worth noting here is that a naval official of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps asserted that the systems used to guide ships in the southern part of the Strait of Hormuz had been destroyed and that unauthorised vessels were not allowed to pass during the night. However, the report did not clarify who damaged these systems or when. This situation underscores that it would not be accurate to assess Iran’s military strength solely on the basis of the results of airstrikes. Restoring safe maritime navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is also a major test for the United States.
Along with the United States, Israel is also gearing up for renewed military action against Iran. On November 8, the Israeli Defence Minister stated that the mission against Iran was not yet complete and that Israel would continue taking the necessary measures for its defence. Iran is attempting to restore its nuclear programme, which Israel considers a grave threat to its security. However, the possibility of further Israeli action could push the already existing regional tensions to alarming new heights. If Israel, with US support, targets Iran’s remaining nuclear or missile facilities, Iran has also expressed its intention to target Israeli installations and US military bases and assets located in the region.
The results of the November 3 midterm elections in American politics have injected a new political dimension into the future of the war with Iran. The Democratic Party has clinched majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, as a result of which President Trump will face a divided Congress during the remaining two years of his term. According to US broadcaster CBS News, inflation and rising everyday living costs played an important role in the election results. However, an electoral defeat does not strip Trump of his powers, although it can certainly increase the political and legal difficulties surrounding his decisions. On the other hand, Iran also faces the concern that, following the election results, President Trump may adopt an even tougher policy to restore his political position and convince the world that the United States remains the most powerful country in the world. On November 6, Bob McNally, head of the US energy and geopolitical analysis firm Rapidan Energy Group, told CNBC that the chances of renewed military action against Iran stood at as much as 80 percent. According to him, the risk of the United States resuming military action has increased following the midterm elections. He also predicted that if the war resumes, the global market price of crude oil could surge far beyond $100 per barrel.
Strikingly, while speaking to journalists on November 1, President Trump had said that one or two targets remained in Iran that could be hit within just ten minutes. He specifically mentioned Pickaxe Mountain, which is associated with Iran’s suspected underground nuclear project. However, Iran denies the US claim of nuclear activities at this location. The most chilling aspect of this dispute is the speculation surrounding the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons. Claims of this nature have surfaced from US commentator Tucker Carlson and others; however, neither the US government nor the Pentagon has confirmed any plan to use nuclear weapons against Iran. An important distinction needs to be understood in this regard. Tactical nuclear weapons are designed for use against relatively limited military targets, but their effects are not confined to the battlefield. The risks of radiation, human casualties, environmental contamination, and regional instability could be extremely serious.
The next few days are also crucial for the future of the war with Iran. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ Summit is set to unfold in the Chinese city of Shenzhen on November 18 and 19. Leaders of major economies from the Asia-Pacific region will participate in this summit. Although the main agenda of the meeting concerns trade, investment, the digital economy, and regional cooperation, issues such as the energy crisis caused by the war with Iran and the security of global trade routes could also move up the agenda. Stability in the Middle East is extremely important for China as well, because it imports vast amounts of energy from the region. Similarly, Japan, South Korea, and other Asian countries also depend on Gulf oil.
The real question is not how much military damage the United States can inflict on Iran, but how the seismic situation that could emerge in the region following any new military action would be reined in. The war may reignite with attacks on just a few military targets, but its economic, political, and humanitarian consequences could engulf the entire world.
Therefore, it is imperative for both the United States and Iran to prioritise an agreement over fleeting military victories and political pressure, one that ensures acceptable monitoring of Iran’s nuclear programme, safe maritime navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and durable peace in the region.