The beginning of the Iran war, which started at the end of February this year, has now completed 101 days, but despite this, not only has tension festered in the region, but the recent attacks by the parties have further deepened the fear for some time that hopes for lasting peace may slowly be extinguished, because the exchange of attacks by Israel and Iran has once again hurled the entire Middle East into uncertainty.
However, despite all this tension, hopes for diplomatic contacts and negotiations have not completely ended. US President Trump, once again due to internal pressure in the United States, has urged both Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Iran to stop attacking each other, and he is still striving for a deal. The spokesperson of the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has also kept alive hope for a deal, although he also said that during the deal an additional layer of complication has been thrown into the mix.
The spokesperson further said that Israel carried out an attack on Iran without asking the United States, which indicates that Iran is also desirous of a deal, and it is understandable that the United States and Iran cannot afford for this volatile situation in the Middle East to continue, and for global economic instability to spiral into anxiety, and for the world not to move from inflation towards depression.
In recent events, reports of explosions were received in Iran’s capital Tehran, Isfahan and Tabriz, while the Israeli army not only claimed to have targeted military objectives in western and central Iran, but also struck the Karun Petrochemical Company located in the city of Mahshahr in southwestern Iran, after which workers there had to be evacuated to a safe location.
In response, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard carried out attacks on Israel’s Nevatim and Tel Nof air bases, which clearly shows that both countries are still relentlessly pursuing a strategy of directly targeting each other’s military capabilities in addition to remaining targets.
Along with this, as a reaction to Iran-Israel attacks, US President Donald Trump took the position that these actions will not affect the ceasefire negotiations ongoing between his administration and the Iranian leadership. This statement left political observers around the world stunned, because generally the concept of a ceasefire is associated with the idea that the weapons of the parties do not spit flames, not that on one side negotiations continue and on the other side a barrage of missile exchanges also take place.
Here a fundamental question arises: what kind of ceasefire can it be during which both countries continue attacking each other and at the same time claims are also made of the success of negotiations? Because the real purpose of a ceasefire is to halt military operations and chart a course towards peace. If during this time a violation occurs from any side, then for its remedy diplomatic means, international pressure and the path of negotiations are adopted, not that the series of relentless military actions is kept ongoing.
However, the scenario that has emerged so far in the Iran war is not so simple but appears to be riddled with layered complexity, because according to the Iranian position, Israel has repeatedly violated the ceasefire, while Tehran had from the very beginning insisted that a complete ceasefire in Lebanon should also be ensured.
Iran says that if Israeli operations continue in Lebanon, sustainable peace in the region remains a distant dream. That is why when Israel carried out attacks in the suburbs of Beirut, Iran called it a serious violation of the ceasefire and considered missile attacks on northern Israel as its response.
Recent explosions and Israeli operations in Lebanon have further cemented the position that Iran considers not only attacks on its own territory but also actions against its allies as against regional balance.
After Israeli attacks on Tehran, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reached out to leaders of various countries including Pakistan, Turkey and Qatar. In discussions with the Prime Minister of Qatar, the Foreign Minister, and the Pakistani Field Marshal, besides mediation efforts between Iran and the United States, the deteriorating situation in Lebanon was also discussed.
The encouraging aspect is that despite ferocious attacks, Iran has not closed the doors of diplomacy, and this behavior gives the impression that Tehran wants to keep the political and diplomatic path open along with a military response so that if a suitable environment is created, the ceasefire can be breathed back to life.
On the other hand, there are also deep fault lines within American political circles on the issue of the Iran war, and some members of parliament believe that Israel’s recent actions may derail American diplomatic efforts, especially at a time when reports of indirect contacts between Washington and Tehran are trickling in.
Regarding Iran’s military capability, global defense experts are also continuously debating, and many analysts believe that despite prolonged war and continuous attacks, more than 80 percent of Iran’s military capability is still intact, and that is why it is continuously responding to Israel on the military front and has been strenuously trying for several months to maintain the balance of power in the region, which creates the impression that Iran fortified its defense preparations during the ceasefire period, the effect of which can be seen in recent retaliatory actions.
Israel is also continuously maintaining the position that it will continue actions for the defense of its national security. The Israeli Prime Minister convened a security cabinet meeting during the recent escalation, which shows that Tel Aviv is reconsidering the strategy adopted in the Iran war in the coming days.
Reports of a missile fired from Yemen being intercepted and destroyed by Israel’s defense system also indicate that this conflict is no longer limited only to Iran and Israel but various fronts across the entire region are being drawn into the fire.
If past events are reviewed, a specific pattern is strikingly visible. Often it has happened that first one side attacks, then the other responds, and after that there is relative calm for a few days. The current situation also appears to be part of the same cycle.
Both countries want to send a message to their people that they will not compromise on national dignity, security and defense, while also considering it necessary to project their military capability at the global level.
However, despite all this military conflict, one reality has continuously asserted itself — that neither the United States nor Iran is unaware of the consequences of a full and long-term war, because the region’s economic and political situation has become so precarious that in the end every crisis concludes, willingly or unwillingly, in negotiations, which is why despite devastating attacks diplomatic contacts have not been broken and various countries remain continuously active in the role of mediation.
