Afghan deal hits a roadblock

The US-Afghan Taliban peace deal has hit its first roadblock just days after being signed. The historic agreement was meant to usher a new era of peace and stability but cracks have begun to emerge threatening the entire peace process.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani announced that his government had not agreed to a clause set out in the deal signed in the Qatari capital. He objected to releasing 5000 Taliban prisoners in exchange for 1000 government detainees as a prerequisite for direct talks with the insurgent group.

After nearly two years of negotiations and twenty years of war, the US and the Afghan Taliban signed an agreement to end the war and pave the way for the withdrawal of foreign all troops from Afghanistan. Ghani, who re-election was confirmed just last month, was not present during the signing in Doha. Ghani is concerned over being on collision course with the Taliban and does not want to give any concessions too early.

There are high hopes that the agreement will be followed by intra-Afghan talks to reach a political settlement. A tentative date for March 10 has been set along with a prisoner swap. The Afghan government understands the importance of the prisoner swap for the Taliban and wants a ceasefire in return.  The prisoner swap is certainly a stumbling block for peace in the country. It seems that the peace deal was rather the easiest part and the intra-Afghan talks will be more serious.

The Afghan government has been weakened by the peace deal as it has legitimised the Taliban who have emerged as a political force. Many Afghans are afraid that it will see the Taliban return to power and continue with its hardline version of Islamic law. Ghani has also preferred to stay in power and prioritised his election mired with allegations of fraud rather than negotiating with the Taliban.

Ghani is probably attempting to exert himself into negotiating but his government is unprepared. US troops have over fourteen months to withdraw from Afghanistan. It will be a huge achievement if intra-Afghan talks are successfully held by then as failure would lead to a new political crisis and possibly send the nation on course to a civil war.

The Taliban control or hold influence over more territory than ever before and have carried out regular attacks. Political deal-making is extremely difficult in Afghanistan with warlords and leaders struggling to find common ground.  Afghanistan may have passed the first milestone in the peace process by signing the agreement but the reconciliation process has just started. There is still uncertainty whether the deal will hold up and whether it will produce actual peace in Afghanistan still need to be seen.