Across the world, a series of geopolitical shifts and changing dynamics are being compared to a game of chess between two major powers, China and the United States, influenced by the ever-evolving geopolitical landscape.
In this context, the United States has taken steps to unfreeze Iran’s frozen assets, indicating that due to the geopolitical landscape, the chilly relations between the two countries have been gradually thawing over the past year.
Prior to this, the United States unilaterally withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, which led to a different scenario where Iran continued its nuclear program despite some restrictions imposed by the JCPOA.
Analysts argue that Iran has achieved a level of nuclear capability that is crucial for potential nuclear weapons and, as a result, Iran could emerge as the world’s second Islamic nuclear power.
Pakistan was the first Islamic state to conduct nuclear tests in 1998, which, if not conducted, could have posed a threat to national security and dignity due to India’s unilateral provocative actions. However, conducting the tests brought Pakistan under the scrutiny of the United States, its allies, and Western countries.
The consequences and repercussions of those actions still haunt us today, including financial servitude under IMF agreements, inclusion in the FATF gray list, and various diplomatic and international initiatives that could have gone the other way had Pakistan not conducted nuclear tests.
Looking at the changing landscape in South Asia, China has steadily strengthened its ties with Iran, investing over $40 billion in defense and economic agreements over the past few years, enhancing Iran’s geographical and political significance. China has also played an important role in improving relations between Saudi Arabia and other regional countries.
The United States and Israel are concerned about Iran’s nuclear capabilities and undetectable nuclear facilities. Even today, the United States could play a role in Iran’s return to full compliance with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors, gaining access to information about its nuclear activities.
Traditionally engaged in a war of words against each other, these two countries, the United States and Iran, although not close, can take steps towards normalization in the changing geopolitical dynamics. These improved international relations can have a positive impact on the global oil market.
Iran possesses significant oil reserves, and its increasing oil production can affect global oil prices. This could also negatively impact Russia’s oil revenues. Strengthening Iran’s oil market can stabilize global oil prices, especially when Saudi Arabia reduces its production.
Looking at the facts, according to the 2023 census, Iran’s population stands at 87.2 million. The country’s GDP is over $350 billion.
In 1979, after ooverthrowing Iran’s Shah, US sanctions and restrictions severely damaged the country’s economy. The Iranian riyal has depreciated to over 42,000 riyals for one US dollar.
On a global scale, Iran is notorious for journalists, where freedom of expression is limited, and public hangings are carried out. However, the reality is not as bitter as it is portrayed. Understanding the facts within Iran can reveal different conditions.
If the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is reactivated, Iran may need to be restrained from pursuing its nuclear goals. Meanwhile, the United States, its allies, and Western countries believe that Iran’s movement in Syria, especially its threats to Israel, may necessitate the inclusion of Iran in the nuclear accord again.
Iran has not yielded to US pressure; instead, it has continued its pursuit of nuclear capabilities. This has led the United States and Israel to understand that they cannot stop Iran from becoming a nuclear power.
In the minds of the United States and Israel, perhaps there is now a plan to provide Iran with an incentive for better relations that could lead to its return to the nuclear agreement. This could give the United States access to Iran through IAEA and potentially reduce Iran’s nuclear capabilities through diplomatic means.
