What options does the government have?

Do you know about Hobson’s choice? It is a fun expression and has a deep connection with today’s Pakistani politics but I will tell you about it later.

The political alliance that is ruling the country today consists of eleven parties. The basic question now facing this 11-member alliance is the same: should it dare to leave the government or dare to complete its term?

Leaving the government means holding immediate elections within three months. This means kneeling before the basic demands of PTI. Imran Khan has made a huge impression through his political rallies, creating a big wave by which he can take advantage if elections are held soon.

The government and some of its leaders think that their term should be completed instead of holding immediate elections. The National Assembly’s tenure is till August next year. If the assembly is dissolved, then elections can be held by October-November 2023. This means the current ruling coalition still has a year to spare.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and former President Asif Ali Zardari are of the view that this term should be used to the fullest. According to him, if aid packages are taken from the United States, IMF, Saudi Arabia, China, UAE, and Qatar, then the economy can be taken care of and relief can be given to the people. But for all these measures, a period of one year is required to implement the plan.

While Zardari and some others think that whether elections are held now or a year later, Imran Khan will not accept the results. They will only accept a transparent election and will shout at defeat in all other circumstances. If this is the case, then why elections should be held now?

The plan has two major obstacles, both are intertwined. The biggest problem is Imran Khan, who is constantly increasing pressure. He estimates that if a few months have passed then the wave in his favour will not necessarily be so effective. That is why he wants elections as soon as possible. And that is why long marches and sit-ins are being announced.

The second hurdle is the country’s rapidly deteriorating economy. When the PML-N promised to bring in its own Prime Minister and Finance Minister, they would not have expected that things would slide down so fast. The dollar was Rs185. The PML-N economic team thought they could strengthen the rupee through artificial maneuvering and bring the dollar Rs165, and then if possible to Rs150.

In the first two days, the value of the dollar remained somewhat under control, improving up to two rupees, but then the dollar was in such a freefall that government experts were shocked. Today, a dollar is worth Rs200. This was seemingly impossible only a few months ago. Now the estimates are that it will not go anywhere till Rs215. Petrol subsidies remain a major problem. The IMF will not give any more money without eliminating it. And if it is abolished there will be a sudden wave of inflation away.

Another terrible problem is load shedding. People had not seen such load shedding in the last five years. Whatever the reason, the government now belongs to the PML-N and its allies. They are now cursing, blaming and abusing for prolonged load shedding of 10-12 hours. If the price of petrol and electricity is increased, then who will withstand the immense burden of inflation?

Nawaz Sharif called Shahbaz Sharif and PML-N leaders in London a few days ago and held detailed consultations on all these matters. One of the decisions made was that if subsidies were abolished, everyone would have to bear the burden.

Some elements within the PML-N also think that the apparent innocence and selflessness with which the PPP has given PML-N the Ministry of Finance and the Interior Ministry is a ploy to make the PML-N do all the dirty work while the PPP runs a glittering foreign ministry or ministries that do not have a direct relationship with the people.

The elder Sharif has also suggested that if immediate elections or something has to be done, then not only the entire ruling coalition but also the Establishment should bear the burden. Therefore, it was suggested that all this be presented to the National Security Committee before proceeding.

By the way, this proposal is very absurd. What is the role of an economic plan in the NSC? It has also been heard that Rangers could be used for handling Imran Khan’s long march so that if it is handled with iron hands, the responsibility falls on everyone.

Work is currently underway in both directions. The deadline has been announced to show perseverance, go ahead and negotiate. On the other hand, there is an attempt to amend election laws as soon as possible so that the PTI does not get any benefit if there are early elections.

The question is still whether there should be new elections sooner or the term should be completed. Whatever the decision, there is a price to pay. Imran Khan has nothing to lose. He has to do his best. Being successful is great for him. Even if it fails, elections have to be held a year later somehow.

While thinking and writing all this, a famous English story, Hobson’s Choice, came to my mind. Hobson is said to have lived in Cambridge, England, four or five hundred years ago. He had a large stable of horses with forty or fifty kinds of horses. When people would come to him for a horse hire, Hobson would give them only one choice, to take whatever horse was tied to the door of the stable or the horse would not be found.

In other words, Hobson’s choice was the only option to accept or reject, and nothing more. This was probably because Hobson feared that if the customer was given the option to choose a horse, he would untie the best horse in the stable while the rest would be tied up.

It seems that the Hobson’s Choice for the ruling coalition is to have their hands dirty at all costs. The government economists have been exposed and nothing happened to them. If they do not hold immediate elections and complete the term, there will have nowhere to hide.

Most of us think that the Establishment allowed Imran Khan’s government to fall and thus took revenge. What about the PDMs who, until just a few months ago, abused the Establishment and hailed themselves as champions of civil supremacy? Wasn’t this also some kind of revenge? Just think about it once and for all.