The political uncertainty

The ongoing conflict between the Establishment and the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) is decreasing day by day. Apparently, the Establishment has decided to step back from politics and leave the field empty for those who own it. The Establishment should play a neutral role and politics should be left entirely for the politicians.

The incumbent government, which was ‘elected’ or ‘selected’, has made the political victimization of the opposition its one-point agenda instead of the welfare of the people. For the first time, a prime minister was seen speaking the language of the opposition in the prime minister’s office. Perhaps he was admitting that the Prime Minister of hearts is someone else, so the role of the opposition should be played against him.

Meanwhile, due to former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s abroad visit for treatment, the opposition’s politics faced a standstill for almost a year and a half. But during this period, the opposition role of the ‘selected’ Prime Minister continued. He continued to repeat two things; he and the army are on the same page, and he will not give an NRO.

It was the incompetence of ‘selected’ Prime Minister that the entire opposition came on the same platform – the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM). The opposition thought that it too would have to break old traditions and launch a movement to oust the present government. Therefore, a very aggressive approach was adopted from the very first meeting in Gujranwala.

At a time when Nawaz Sharif was reiterating that “Mujhe Kyun Nikala (Why was I ousted)”, our so-called independent media started asking that why Nawaz Sharif does not take the name? Who had ousted him? So now, two and a half years later, Nawaz Sharif named the person who ousted him. Attempts were made to stop this aggressive strategy by criticizing it on media, but it did not work out. However, This aggressive approach continued by the opposition.

The results of the approach also came out. Those who were playing in political field stepped back saying that we have nothing to do with politics. Not only did the by-election results confirm this, but the ECP’s tough action on the rigging at NA-75 in Daska also seems to be evidence of the Establishment’s indifference to politics.

But the question is, will the opposition be able to overthrow the current government and move towards in-house change or fresh elections? No, it is not possible for the matter to be so simple. Suppose the PDM parties overthrow the present government and take power themselves, will they rule quietly? Firstly, they will retaliate. But suppose they have no such intention, then who will believe it?

In order for the current government to fall and the PDM parties to come to power, some important issues, behind the scenes, must be settled. These important issues can be a solid strategy to move the country towards political stability rather than further conflict.

The softening tone of the PDM since the Daska incident shows their signs of confidence in the Establishment. But the end of the current government can only be accepted by the Establishment if Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz accept to stay abroad for the remaining two and a half years. But will Nawaz Sharif unilaterally accept such a formula? Didn’t Maryam Nawaz give her consent by saying “I have a surgery for which I have to go abroad?”

Hamza Shahbaz, who has a policy of reconciliation, had been released from jail and Shahbaz Sharif will also be released soon. Amid this situation, the possibility of Maryam Nawaz’s detention has also started to appear. If some issues are settled behind the scenes, then the victory of Yousuf Raza Gilani in the Senate election can be considered certain. But if not, then Gilani’s victory seems difficult. This atmosphere of uncertainty will be evident from the results of the March 3 Senate election.