Myanmar and global conflicts… How will be the conditions in coming year?

Until 1962, Myanmar was a progressing country throughout the region. However, in the past 40 to 50 years, since the military took control, the situation has deteriorated steadily, and conditions have worsened.

Two years ago, in 2021, the elected head of state, Aung San Suu Kyi, was removed from power by the military, and the military leaders took over. In response, people took up arms, as Myanmar’s situation had already been complicated due to existing regional and insurgent groups. The People’s Defense Army was formed as a resistance against the military government and the deteriorating economic conditions.

The People’s Defense Army is a headache for the Myanmar government in every aspect, actively resisting the military rule. The border between Kachin and Shan states, which share boundaries with China, reflects the cultural and societal influence of China on the residents. 

The mentioned route is crucial for China as it transports oil through the sea. Like Pakistan is part of the String of Pearls, Myanmar is considered essential for China. Before the Belt and Road Initiative, China used to secure all its oil and gas through the pipeline from the Bay of Bengal. This project is closely monitored by the United States and its allies.

China wants to extricate itself from this situation. Due to the People’s Defense Army, Myanmar forces are surrendering battalions. People neither want to join the military nor become part of the military government ruling the country. Myanmar’s leader stated that they are standing on the brink of destruction, causing China great concern.

India also shares a 1600-kilometer-long border with Myanmar, adding to India’s worries about Myanmar’s future. India’s concerns stem from two main reasons. First, India is an ally of the United States, and China containment is a priority in U.S. foreign policy. Secondly, India can assist the U.S. in this policy, but negative impacts due to the situation in Manipur and Myanmar’s internal conditions could affect India.

Additionally, India’s trade route passes through Myanmar, and any disturbance in the region could negatively impact India’s trade. Therefore, India has multiple reasons to worry about the situation in Myanmar. The benefit of Myanmar’s deteriorating situation can be seized by the United States and its allies by fanning the flames of the fire in Myanmar, affecting China’s Belt and Road Initiative. China is aware of all these facts.

In this entire scenario, the shadow of Chinese interference in Myanmar is looming large. Currently, China has not thought of any agreement between the people and the military government or any other resolution, hoping for the restoration of peace and security in Myanmar. China does not want any disturbance in the region that could affect its Belt and Road Initiative and economic factors.

In this context, the imminent threat to the international community is the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the situation in Myanmar, and the continuous bombing by Israel in Gaza. These events cast doubt on the prospects for improvement in 2024 because lighting a match is enough to start a fire, but extinguishing it takes much time. The global scenario is such that fires are burning everywhere, and the fear of prolonged efforts to extinguish them looms large. It is essential for economically distressed nations to experience the negative effects to bring about positive changes.