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My intention was to analyze in details the party position in all of the twenty constituencies. But it occurred to me that tomorrow on July 15; the election campaign is coming to an end. One can only give the final analysis once the election campaign is concluded. Consequently, I decided to talk about the five important questions that many of readers might be wondering about regarding the upcoming Punjab by polls.
Will the administration influence the elections?
The answer is resounding yes. The provincial administration of Punjab, while continuing its “glorious” traditions, played the same role as it had been in the past. The government machinery is fully behind the government candidates. Development works in each constituency can be seen like streets and road repair, power poles, transformers installations, new schools in rural areas, immediate grants for other centers, etc… But all that is pretty much a norm in this country.
According some reports, the people who had applied for electricity meter even a year ago, now they got it within days during the by-election campaign. Vote purchasing has also been going on but that is on the individual level.
The worst and probably the ugliest act is putting pressure on various local personalities by the administration to stop them supporting the PTI and force them to support the PML-N candidate. Some people, on condition of anonymity, told us the local administration officials had been applying pressure on them. In some cases, independent candidates had to withdraw from the contest as old cases or threats being used to intimidate them.
Complaints have been received in some places that pro-PIT votes have been shifted to remote polling stations, as well as allegations that part of the N-League vote bank has allegedly been shifted from nearby constituencies to by-election areas. This time, the PTI is playing the role of a real opposition party; completely helpless.
Will turncoats be humiliated and made an example of?
This, as of today, cannot be answered, we will know for sure on July 17. But the ground realities may not be fancied by the idealist clan. Two reasons can explain that; Ten out of twenty independents won and joined the PTI, meaning the votes were their own, not Imran Khan’s. Therefore, if they have deviated, there is not much reaction in these constituencies. Of those who won on ten party tickets, only two of them are not contesting the elections. Thus, the ‘Lota factor’ has already decreased by about 60%.
Another reason is most of the constituencies are located in rural areas, where people tend to go with the community, faction. The winning members of the assembly also keep changing sides. Candidates go which way the wind blows, and their faction not only do they not care much but, in fact, they feel content that they got a good deal. This is an ugly side of our traditional politics.
However, this time is a wee bit different due to aggressive rhetoric of Imran Khan and strong reaction of social media against ‘Lota Politics’. The new generation, first time even in pure rural areas, responded to Imran Khan’s call, and it seems the big powerful, tradiotnal candidates could be in big trouble.
In pure rural constituencies like Darya Khan, Bhakkar, prominent people in different settlements reportedly told Nawani Sardar that they would vote for him but they can’t say that about their young ones, the youth is not under their control.
Young people also raised slogans again turncoats in in many places. This trend has not yet become so effective that the election itself has become one-sided. It is important to note that I am not denying this factor; I am simply saying that there was a reaction but it was not unusual.
What about those who stabbed Imran Khan?
In Political terms, Imran Khan suffered the most from the hands of Jahangir Tarin group and Abdul Aleem Khan. Abdul Aleem Khan is not contesting the elections, although he is definitely supporting the N-League candidate on his vacated seat.
Jahangir Tarin, however, has suffered a setback. Jahangir Tarin’s political stronghold is Lodhran, where elections are held on two seats. Both the candidates of Jahangir Tarin are facing an uphill battle. In one constituency, his candidate is certain to lose, while in the other, the PTI candidate is weak, but the real trouble for Tarin camp is an independent candidate who is in strong position and can win this seat.
Crazy thing is; the PML-N and PTI have united against Jahangir Tarin at the local level. The problem for PML-N is that its key local leaders Abdul Rehman Kanju MNA and Siddique Baloch MPA are fierce opponents of Jahangir Tarin. Thus, the Tareen’s candidate will lose.
Five or six years ago, when Jahangir Tarin was disqualified after a court decision and was replaced by his son Ali Tarin, then Abdul Rehman Kanju, Siddique Baloch, Pir Iqbal Shah, Pir Rafiuddin Shah and others formed an alliance that eventually defeated Ali Tarin.
This mummy daddy style politics in fact dishearten Ali Tarin to a degree that he lost interest in politics. Now they want to defeat Jahangir Tarin’s candidates in one way or another, openly or secretly. July 17 will decide what happens to Tarin?
Bear in mind, the people of his group who have joined PML-N, are now PML-N’s members and come general elections, they will be at Sharifs’ door for tickets not Tareen’s.
Has PTI learned anything from past?
As far as the election campaign is concerned, it can be said that PTI and Imran Khan have learned a lot. Imran Khan has been talking about ideological activists, but he gave tickets to good, strong candidates everywhere. Candidates, whose families have been in politics for 15-20 years, who have fought two, three or four elections, and are nieces and nephews of former members of parliament. Like a Punjabi saying goes; he can now do power politics.
In Bhakkar, Imran Khan gave ticket to his cousin Irfanullah Khan, even though, they had political differences with the family and Irfanullah’s brothers Hafizullah Niazi and Inamullah Niazi are fierce opponents of Imran Khan.
Imran Khan had also run a vigorous election campaign, mobilized his workers as well as the local leaders, engaged his member of parliament in the areas, and made truce within the quarreling factions. These are things that Imran Khan has never done before. This is typical PLM-N’s election playbook.
The PTI has also prepared a detailed plan for Election Day. Different people will be on duty at each polling station. A lawyer will be required everywhere. Every possible way is being considered to counter any possible method of fraud. This means that Election Day management will now be used by the PTI to the best of its ability. This experience will also benefit them in next general election.
Will there be political engineering?
This is what they call a million dollar question that every informed political activist and every active journalist have been asking. None has the answer, not yet anyway. Only July 17 will give the adequate answer.
However, the talks of neutrality from the country’s powerful circles are in public sphere. It must be believed as the solution to the country’s crisis comes from it. Politicians should be allowed to fight their own battles, any other institution shouldn’t interfere.
One question, however, is in everyone’s mind and the more one ponders on it, the more doubts and suspicions come to mind. That is, if the PTI wins this election, even as many as thirteen seats will give them back Punjba government. What will the federal government have then? KP and Punjab with PTI, Sindh PPP and Balochistan with Baap, then what did the League get out of all this? Nothing.
And if PTI did win they by-polls, would it pave the way for their victory in the next general election? In the current circumstances, if the general elections are held soon, then the PTI will be the winner. What happens then? Will it be acceptable? There are a lot of unanswered questions.
However, we must hope that non-political forces will remain neutral and the political government will try to rig the elections, so we can have transparent and credible elections.
