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Home Opinion & Editorial Opinion

Ukraine War Spring Offensive Strategies

Munir Ahmed by Munir Ahmed
April 4, 2023

Europe’s biggest armed conflict since World War II is poised to enter a new phase in the coming weeks, reported aljazeera.com on 1 Apr 2023. Quoting the Ukrainian defence minister the news outlet has published that “With no suggestion of a negotiated end to the 13 months of fighting between Russia and Ukraine…… a spring counteroffensive could begin as soon as April.”

Our readers may recall my piece “The Changing Face of Ukraine War”, published here at the MMNews.tv on 21 March 2023 where I specifically mentioned that the next strong offensive will take place early summer. The second important factor I had noted was that the key Ukrainian allies will not inject their highly sophisticated weapons in the prospective summer offensive that could be a final combat.

The last weeks had been very important for the Ukraine war. The US and Germany have taken aback to supply highly sophisticated tanks and fighter jets. France has already refused too. It means whatever the offensive shape up in the coming days, will be without the high precision arms. Meanwhile, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu promised to boost munitions supplies to forces in Ukraine during a visit to the headquarters of Moscow’s troops fighting in the country.

A senior Ukrainian official has ruled out any ceasefire in Russia’s war on his country that would involve Russian forces remaining on territory they now occupy in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Interior Minister Igor Klimenko has claimed to have assembled eight new brigades for a new offensive that is likely to take place as soon as April [the ongoing month]. Klimenko didn’t reveal the exact number of personnel in the new force, but a brigade usually consists of between 3,000 to 5,000 troops. RT.COM quoting the Ukrainian Interior Minister Igor Klimenko has reported that Kiev has completed the recruitment of its “so-called Attack Guard,” which has been assembled with the aim of retaking territories lost to Russia during the ongoing conflict.

The US officials have said that a new $2.6bn military aid package could be announced early next week and is expected to include air surveillance radars, anti-tank rockets and fuel trucks for the Ukrainian army. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund said its executive board approved a four-year $15.6bn loan programme for Ukraine, part of a global $115bn package to support the country’s economy as it battles Russia’s 13-month occupation.

Propaganda call centers and disinformation labs are widely operating and allegedly being supported by the US-NATO technical experts. The Ukrainian security services are said to be using the “dirtiest” technologies to fight Russia and have “rolled down” to banal telephone terrorism. Their “call centres” are recruiting a large number of specialists with a good command of the Russian language. The main activity of such “bot factories” is to organize sabotaging information, aimed at sowing fear and panic among the Russian population, as well as discrediting its military and political leadership and army command.

At the instigation of its Western handlers, as said, Kyiv has crossed every imaginable and unthinkable line of human morality and norms of military honour. Blatantly vile and cynical methods and techniques are being employed. Where the members of the Ukrainian security services on behalf of the “representatives of military enlistment offices and commanders of military units of the Russian armed forces” make telephone calls to relatives of Russian servicemen, providing them with false information about the deaths or serious injuries of their loved ones in the war zone. In exchange for a bribe, the relatives are offered to “deliver the body of the deceased to the place of burial without delay”.

Thus, in their attempt to undermine the Russian population’s trust in the country’s leadership, the Kyiv security services are mocking the feelings of the servicemen’s relatives, above all their parents, wives and children. Against the background of the increasing collapse of Ukraine’s military infrastructure and a series of defeats on the battlefield, Kiev’s “information troops” have launched a virtual offensive against Russia. They are actively publishing panic messages in Russian blogs and chat rooms, calling the population and relentlessly spreading fakes in a vain attempt to provoke social tension in Russia.

Such tactics against civilians speak only to the critical state of Ukraine itself and the deep ideological and value crisis among a significant part of its population, which is under the pressure of total propaganda. The effectiveness of the Security Service of Ukrainian CIPSO (Centralized Information-Psychological Special Operations) has sharply decreased. Russian citizens are giving in less and less often to the telephone provocations of the Ukrainian CIPSO, aimed primarily at creating panic in society and discrediting the Russian Armed Forces and the Russian state as a whole. The level of “digital literacy” among the population has increased, people remain vigilant and trust unverified sources of information less and less.

At the same time, the Russian army has made a significant contribution to reducing the capacity of Ukrainian special services. Since the beginning of the year, there has been a sharp decrease in the number of complaints of Russian citizens to law enforcement agencies about telephone fraud. Apparently, the Russian Armed Forces’ strikes on Ukraine’s energy facilities have turned the “call centres” of Ukrainian CIPSO’s into a pointless and expensive toy. Without electricity and the Internet, it is impossible to use number-swapping technologies and, in principle, to have the lengthy conversations so necessary for this type of fraud, including in its most extreme form – “telephone terrorism”.

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