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On the brisk morning of Aug 15, two young boys in the city of Kabul; left their homes; rather hastily. They did not know each other’s name, family, or clan, yet their goal was the same—to reach Hamid Karzai International Airport, as soon as possible. The ‘90s infamous Taliban warriors descended at the gates of their city.
The same city where 179 years ago, Imperial Britain troops were decimated, so much so that solo survivors made it back home. Later 32 years ago, the undefeated Red Army was forced to concede defeat. Now, the mighty US/NATO forces were humbled 20 years later. One thing is conspicuous, the city, and, by extension, the country, doesn’t accept foreign rulers. In that very city, the Talibs, charged with a potent ideology; spurred by the withdrawal of foreign forces; and battle-hardened by decades of guerrilla warfare were ready to retake what they claimed to be theirs.
Soon, the two boys who are in their late teens found out the half of the city went hell for leather to the same airport they were heading. Why? Two words: Fear and hope. The fear of dreams ought to trample under the iron fist rule of the Taliban, meanwhile, the hope of making a new life in the refuge of their benignant rights guarantors, the West. Ironically the West, especially the US, has a long history of leaving allies in the lurch.
And it happened that day too. At the airport, the US was busy evacuating ‘the Americans’, scared Afghans swarmed the US C-17 military cargo plane. Desperate Afghans were jostling to earn space for themselves on the airplane. Shots were fired, some died, there was chaos everywhere. Witnessing it, the two boys found themselves the only place where they could hide without anyone expecting, let alone believed. They stowed away within the wheel well of the aircraft. Naively, thinking it may lead them to a step closer to fulfilling their cherished dreams.
However, Mother Nature has other plans for them. Soon, the craft hit the sky – the dashed two boys touched the ground. Reza and Zaki, the former was a 17-year-old teenager, only wanted to go to the United States or Canada to escape the Taliban rule. While, the latter was a promising player of national youth football team of Afghanistan – just aged 19.
It wasn’t a death of mere two young boys. But, with them, their dreams, prospect of a bright future and the West’s sham veneer of rights protector fell to death from that US plane. Their videos of huddling to the aircraft wing and falling to their death will forever haunt the US interventionists, warmongering congressmen; foreign policy hawks; and ultimately weakens the US standing in the world.
The Taliban, born in the refugee camps of Pakistan; expelled from their homes during the Soviet occupation; only to get indoctrinated in the Pakistani Deobandi-affiliated madrassas which were bankrolled by the wealthy Gulf donors. Dubbed as the ‘Pakistan’s proxy’ in Afghanistan to achieve the Establishment’s long-desired objective of “strategic depth,” as many critics allege.
However, to paint the Taliban as mere ‘pliant fighters with AK-47s flopped over their shoulders and ready to do Pakistan’s bidding’ is completely divorced from reality. Also, this line of reasoning discredited the Taliban’s long aspiration and struggle, mostly armed, to expel the uninvited aggressors.
Nevertheless, the overthrow of New Delhi-backed Kabul regime led by Ashraf Ghani, strategically speaking, was a triumph for Pakistan that left India to lick its wounds.
With the Taliban in Kabul, the Indian policy of ‘double squeeze,’ through the nexus of RAW-NDS to encircle Pakistan will be minimized, if not vanished. Furthermore, one should tread carefully, as any laudation for the victors of Kabul from Pakistan will be used as an easy target by the West, especially the US, to scapegoat, or worst, coerce the FATF to blacklist the country, to divert the blame for its failure in Afghanistan.
But, there’s a catch-22 situation for Pakistan. Given the upcoming Pakistan-friendly government in the face of Taliban in Kabul, realistically, it won’t allay Pakistan’s many serious concerns soon. Well, for one, the Afghan Taliban murky relationship with the TTP. Their proximity can be gauged by the fact, the TTP recently pledged allegiance to the emir of Afghan Taliban, changed their ideological objective from, previously fighting for implementing the caliphate system in line with Al-Qaeda’s goal, to now form an independent state in the tribal regions of Pakistan, inspired by Afghan Taliban’s nationalistic movement in Afghanistan.
With its limited influence, Pakistan, repeatedly in past, pressured the Afghan Taliban to renounce their ties with the TTP, with respect to ending sanctuaries for TTP fighters, forcing the TTP leadership to end violence in Pakistan, and stop freeing the TTP fighters from prisons, but failed on all counts. Despite recent assurances from the Afghan Taliban to rein in the TTP, Pakistan’s civil-military leadership remains skeptical.
For instance, a cabinet member of the PTI-led government admitted that the Taliban’s victory does pose a security risk for Pakistan. Also, not to mention, the threat of Afghan Taliban’s ascendency to emboldened the other ‘jihadist groups’ in Pakistan. These fears in the security circles are ubiquitous. “Our jihadis will be emboldened. They will say that ‘if America can be beaten, what is the Pakistan army to stand in our way?’” an unnamed senior Pakistani official told a leading American daily.
“Pakistani sectarian and other militants will be the ultimate beneficiaries of Taliban state capture. Instead of being a strategic asset, the Taliban will become a strategic threat to Pakistan,” a former senior counter-terrorism official warned. Take for example, back in ‘90s, Riaz Basra, former dreaded chief of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, indicted in multiple attacks against the state of Pakistan, was sheltered, and later, refused bing handed over by the Afghan Taliban to the Pakistan authorities. Moreover, a former senior security official, for example, said: “The imposition of the Taliban’s preferred version of Deobandi Islam in large parts of Afghanistan is boosting Pakistani Deobandi militants.”
Similarly, a former senior Pakistani diplomat disclosed: “The Pakistan military has tried but has failed to convince the Taliban leadership to distance itself from the Pakistani Taliban.” Even, the army supremo and intelligence czar, Qamar Bajwa and Faiz Hameed respectively, in a briefing to lawmakers, conceded the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban were “two faces of the same coin.”
And to add insult to injury, Afghan Taliban’s leadership pragmatic approach to world politics, particularly engagement with India, left Pakistan in a quandary, given the latter utmost efforts to do the opposite. Also, to Islamabad’s consternation, the Afghan Taliban refused to recognize the Durand Line as an international border between two South Asian countries. What’s worse, when ‘father of Taliban’ Major-Gen (retd) Naseerullah Babar coaxed the then-Emir of Taliban, Mullah Omer, over a meal to accept the border line between the two countries. His host response was: “Omar took serious offence at his guest’s unsolicited advice and, going against the grain of the Pashtun code of honour, shouted at Babar to stop eating and leave the place at once — calling Babar, who was an ethnic Pashtun, a “traitor.”
Another two prime concerns that dogged Islamabad-Rawalpindi is the mass exodus of refugees and the least known conflict of Kabul River. The country is hosting up to 3 million Afghan refugees, falling just behind Turkey on the second spot for the largest refugee population in the world. Giving that, another 700,000 was expected to reach its borders amid the chaos, however, it was staved off. But, the volatile situation in Afghanistan is making another wave of refuges very likely to the doors of its eastern neighbor.
The dispute of Kabul River is another thorn in the side of normalising the hostilities between the two overwhelmingly Muslim-majority countries. For Afghans, populated near river basin, the river is the only source of freshwater for about seven million; meanwhile, the same river is the major source of irrigation in KP and electricity, for Pakistanis. Without a formal water treaty, this created a rift which Pakistan’s arch-rival, India, exploited. By offering to sponsor the construction of dams on the Kabul River which could reduce the water flow to Pakistan’s downstream. The plan is now shelved due to an abrupt change of administration in Afghanistan, but given India’s overtures to the Taliban, and the latter dismissed the reports of boycotting trade with India. The Afghan Taliban, guided by interests, not any country’s whim, are yet to decide on the materialisation of the Indian-funded dams’ plan.
Meanwhile, the relationship between Afghan Taliban leadership and Pakistan is best described as a “roller coaster.” Mullah Akhtar Mansur, former emir of Afghan Taliban, expressed dread from Pakistan, shortly afterward from his death by a drone. Another co-founder of Afghan Taliban was jailed by Pakistan, only to release for Doha talks. His name is Mullah Ghani Baradar, the next touted president of Afghanistan. Also, repeatedly, Pakistan put Afghan Taliban leadership behind bars to exert pressure on them. Back in 2014, the relations were such a low ebb, the fighters of Afghan Taliban were ready to attack Pakistan forces, if found any.
