Is Pakistan going to face food crisis?

In the past few years, Pakistan has attained the status of a food surplus country owing to its good agricultural policies which helped the country to become a major producer of wheat in the region. As an agrarian land, the agricultural sector of Pakistan contributed 24% to its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), making it a central player in our economy. Besides that, the importance of this sector can be gauged from the fact that it’s the largest source of foreign exchange earnings and is responsible for feeding the entire rural and urban population. 20.5% of the population is undernourished 44% of children under 5 are stunted 207.7 million population.

Pakistan facing net wheat deficit of 2.37 million metric tons, says food minister. At present, Pakistan is facing its worst-ever flour crisis with parts of the country reporting a shortage of wheat. A packet of flour is being sold for 3000 Pakistani rupees. Fights and brawls for flour can be seen in the streets of Pakistan. However, another disaster with direct global implications looms: a major food crisis. With crops, livestock, and agricultural land damaged or destroyed, Pakistan will struggle to feed itself and the countries that depend on its food exports.

This risks exacerbating the global food market crunch triggered by coronavirus pandemic supply chain shocks and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. According to preliminary estimates, 65% of Pakistan’s main food crops including 70% of its rice have been swept away during the floods, and 3 million livestock have died. Pakistan’s planning minister says 45% of agricultural land is now destroyed. Such territory is precious in the best of times: Of Pakistan’s total land area, less than 40% is arable, and land erosion inflicts heavy damage on agricultural land. Wheat is Pakistan’s top food crop, and the annual planting season begins soon. More than 90% of Pakistani households are wheat consumers. But with so much land destroyed or damaged, the wheat harvest could be jeopardized; some farmers fear their land won’t be usable within the next three months. Pakistan will likely have to import more food, which could raise costs and worsen the country’s balance of payments crisis.

Before the floods, food inflation was at 26%, and in recent days some costs have surged by as much as 500%. These high costs will be felt heavily in cities, which are home to large poor and working-class population. If history is any guide, it could lead to urban unrest. It will manifest differently in rural areas, which are home to around two-thirds of Pakistan’s population. Rural land ownership is wildly unequal, and most residents own little or no land, which compounds food insecurity. In the longer term, this could exacerbate a public health challenge: stunting in children attributed to poor nutrition. A food crisis in Pakistan would have international implications. The country is the fourth-largest global rice exporter, with buyers from China to sub-Saharan Africa. Any dramatic drop in exports will only add to global food insecurity fueled by reduced wheat exports from Ukraine, although high global rice stocks could soften the blow. Pakistan also exports many non-food crops, especially cotton.

There are numerous factors that are responsible for the looming food crisis. Although Pakistan is one of the world’s smallest contributors to carbon emissions causing global warming, the country has been hit hard by flash floods in the last few years, causing a loss of $13 million. This translates to unprecedented damage suffered by agricultural land, livestock, and infrastructure of all types. The unprecedented rise in global fuel prices is also one of reasons why third world countries such as ours has to bear the brunt of high food prices which makes it inaccessible for the poor. The country is always facing a shortage of fertilizers, either due to a lack of government foresight about demand and supply chain or due to the hoarders who accumulate millions of tons

of fertilizer to earn unjustified profits. The absence of government intervention and an unregulated crop market leave room for vendors to set their prices. Another factor is the non-availability of water. In the absence of a cemented canal system, most of the water seeps into the grounds. Besides that, silt in reservoirs and a shortage of new dams have reduced the country’s water storage capacity. As water is the most critical natural component used to nourish cropland for a greater yield, its non-availability in the summer means that fewer crops would be available for an ever-increasing population.

The rise in demand and low production of crops means that there are high chances of disruption in demand and supply chain. This is not only caused by water scarcity but the recent war that has begun between Russia and Ukraine spiked crop prices, especially of wheat. Nearly 90% of Pakistan’s population relies on wheat as its staple food, however, due to sanctions imposed on Russia, Pakistan has to rely on other countries to meet its demands.

An uncontrolled population is another challenge faced by Pakistan. The country is unable to cater to an increasing population, owing to its scarce resources and limited production. The cost of food in Pakistan increased 31.70% in September of 2022 over the same month in the previous year. The rise in the cost of food production is directly proportional to low affordability, which means that the poor would have limited access to quality food for healthy and active lifestyles. For Pakistan to avert a food crisis, it should closely follow and implement the policy enshrined in the NFSP that mandates the government to improve food availability by bridging yield gaps, supporting kitchen gardening, and clamping down on conventional farming practices.

It also aims to equip farmers with agricultural inputs such as quality seeds to increase food production, and pesticides and provide agricultural loans in easy instalments to support Pakistan’s agricultural activities. For improving the quality and quantity of crops, our farmers should be trained on international lines, so they may learn about innovative farming techniques and get rid of conventional farming. This practice will ensure stable and adequate food production and help farmers maximize profits by exporting the surplus to foreign countries. By taking these practical steps, the government can ensure sustainability in our agriculture which means more employment, a strong economy and a surplus for our population.