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When Ayatollah Sistani releases a statement supporting the rights of protestors, it means that things are bubbling in Iraq. Since last month, the country has been witnessing an explosion of raw anger on the streets by a younger generation, unaffiliated with any political groups, who have lost patience over decades of corruption and lack of services.
Iraq has seen improved security and normalcy in recent years yet periodic outbreaks of protest are not uncommon. However, there are no signs that these protests will be slowing down anytime soon. Despite its vast oil reserves, Iraq is one of the most corrupt countries in the world where graft and bribes are common across all levels of government, ministries run as fiefdoms, and a system based on patronage completely lacking political vision is in place
The protestors are now demanding Prime Minister Abdel Mahdi should resign, and a complete overhaul of the entire political system. This is a serious test for Mahdi who was installed just last year. He has given tokenistic concessions stating that there is no magic solution and progress will take time. The state authorities also responded by using excessive force, living with the delusion that violence and fatigue may contain the protests. Instead, it will only instead add fuel to fire.
There are now fears that the military might not be unable to suppress the protestors painting a dangerous scenario. If the violence escalates it will create a rift between political and military establishments dragging Iraq into another civil war.
There are concerns whether Iraq stands at the brink of a revolution. The country lacks a coherent political opposition that can galvanise support. Iraq has been ruled by Shia parties ever since the fall of Saddam Hussain. The Sunnis were ultimately expunged from the politics, judiciary and military. Iraq has also developed strong ties with Iran, and both have worked to fight and virtually eliminate ISIS. The Iranians would not want further instability in the country either.
The movement will not diminish but rather flare up and the next outburst may be soon. The protests are taking place before Arbaeen in which Shias commemorate Imam Hussain’s sacrifice in Karbala. The event draws massive crowds up to 15 million. This could easily turn into a gigantic platform for protests and even an insurrection, which the Iraqi government is not equipped to handle. Such an eventually might also sow discord in the close but complicated ties between Iran and Iraq.
Iraq has seen years of authoritarianism, a foreign invasion followed by a brutal civil war. It cannot afford any more conflicts. The ruling parties must compromise for the sake of the betterment of their country and introduce structural reforms. Till then, this remains a ticking time bomb.
