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With the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan, a civil war is imminent and the war-ravaged country’s problems will worsen. Pakistan has been constantly warning about the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan as it will be the worst affected from the fallout.
The interest of neighbouring countries and the United States has increased amid reports of a civil war which can push the nation back into conflict and unleash an influx of refugees across its borders. Pakistan should be prepared how it will deal with the new wave of Afghan refugees and should not repeat its past mistakes as hostile states can send terrorists to our country disguised as refugees.
Pakistan has categorically refused to hand over its airbases to the United States for operations against Afghanistan. However, India could take advantage of the situation and offer US military bases in East Punjab and Srinagar. The defence pact between India and United States provides for military cooperation and allows US aircraft to take off, land and refuel at Indian airports and military bases.
Pakistan is a signatory of the UN Convention on Refugees, which states that under international law, in the event an influx of refugees at the border, we cannot shoot at them and have to allow refugees to enter the country. It may be recalled that on the arrival of refugees in 1979, Pakistan was unable to confine them to the camps as Iran did. Many Afghan refugees were issued identity cards and passports and they bought properties and set up businesses. If these Afghan refugees committed a crime in any foreign country, then Pakistan was blamed for it. The current scenario cannot be any different than before, but this time the government of Pakistan will have to preventive steps much before or the situation could worsen. The refugee crisis can be used to sabotage the CPEC as forces opposed to Chinse influence can take advantage of the new emerging situation.
Due to the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, there will be even more pressure on Pakistan to ‘Do More’. The blame game will continue as both sides will look at each other with mistrust. Pakistan played a key in the historic Doha Accords after serious efforts and the ongoing Afghan peace process.
After the decision to pull out, it seems that the US is trying to blame Pakistan for its failures and get away with its responsibilities.
In the current situation, Pakistan should continue to present the complex situation in Afghanistan to the United Nations through diplomatic channels. We need to expedite efforts so that the international community does not blame Pakistan in case of a refugee influx. We need to engage with the UN to prepare ourselves for how to deal with the refugees in accordance with UN law. We cannot carry the burden of a large number of refugees amid the deteriorating economic situation or our problems will worsen and lead towards further destruction.
