Domestic consumers to face severe gas shortage in winter

Due to the non-availability of LNG cargo from Azerbaijan, the gas crisis is expected to become more serious.

According to senior energy ministry officials, the country’s gas crisis is likely to worsen in winter as LNG cargo from Azerbaijan may not arrive in January.

Officials said that before the non-delivery of LNG cargo, the country was estimated to have a gas shortage of 360 mmcfd in December, which will now increase to 470 mmcfd by January 2024.

Ministry of Energy officials said that it is feared that gas will be supplied to domestic consumers only for 6 to 8 hours a day.

It should be noted that earlier the Caretaker Energy Minister Muhammad Ali said that the gas supply in Pakistan decreased by 20% last year, they are trying to ship more LNG but its prices are very high.

Muhammad Ali said in a statement that there will be load-shedding of gas in winter, it is impossible to supply gas 24 hours, so gas should not be used unnecessarily.

During the previous government tenure headed by the then premier Shehbaz Sharif, a GtG deal was made with Azeri firm SOCAR, under which it is bound to provide one LNG cargo a month.

Pakistan and Azerbaijan on July 25, 2023, inked an agreement for one year, which is also extendable to another year. Under the agreement, SOCAR Trading Company-UK will offer one LNG cargo 45 days before the start of the relevant delivery window, and each offer for the cargo will have a set validity period during which PLL may accept the offer.

SOCAR seems evasive from offering the LNG cargo for January as the Western economies have started showing buoyancy, and distressed LNG availability has become difficult, the official opined, adding that the Azeri firm is bound to offer 45 days before the delivery of the cargo. 

The time is still there and SOCAR may come up with the offer for January 2024, said the official. 

Pakistan LNG Limited (PLL) is also planning to market its tenders for spot cargoes for January but PLL has sought the PPRA rules exemptions from the two issues, one from 30 days response time and the second from 15 days bid validity time. 

So far, the process is underway. Once, the exemptions are granted, PLL will go for tenders seeking spot cargos for January and it would have to respond and decide the same day after some hours.

However, the PLL purchased one cargo from SOCAR keeping its price 10-20 cents less than the lowest bid of Vitol. The market players believe that the bids were used last time to purchase one LNG cargo from SOCAR. The official said the impression was wrong, as SOCAR had offered its price separately under its process.

The government functionaries had earlier worked out that the gas deficit of 160 MMCFD would stay in December and 170 MMCFD in January in the Sui Southern System. However, in Sui Northern’s system, the gas deficit would be at 200 MMCFD in December and 300 MMCDF in January, and the gas shortfall will remain in December at 360 MMCFD which will increase in January to 470 MMCFD. 

However, in January, the gas crisis may increase because of the non-availability of LNG cargo from SOCAR. The officials said that from January 2024, Pakistan will start getting four-term cargo at 10.2% of the Brent from Qatar instead of three cargoes. The country is already getting five cargoes from the same country at 13.37% of the Brent at terminal one. ENI is also providing one-term cargo at 12.05% of the Brent price.

Since the demand for gas in Sui Northern goes up to 1,100 MMCFD, and 960 MMCFD in January, Pakistan needs two more spot cargos in the month. This seems difficult as the bidders will come up with inflated prices keeping in view their last bids experience. The local gas production has reduced to 3.19 bcfd, decreasing by 9-10% every year.