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As climate change pushes the dengue virus into new territories, scientists work on a new tool to predict the outbreak well in advance.
This year, a mosquito-borne disease has spread extensively, claiming the lives of at least 5,500 individuals in the 20 most severely affected countries—an alarming surge of 32 percent since 2022, as revealed by a recent analysis by Save the Children. The disease, now prevalent on nearly every continent, is expanding its reach into new territories, including Europe, due to the effects of climate change.
In response to this escalating threat, researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) are pioneering the development of the world’s inaugural ‘dengue dashboard.’ This innovative tool aims to monitor the real-time spread of the pathogen and predict potential outbreak locations up to three months in advance. Dr. Oliver Brady, an assistant professor at LSHTM leading the project, drew inspiration from the successful Covid dashboards that proved invaluable for assessing and mitigating risks during the pandemic.
Dr. Brady expressed his frustration at the lack of a single comprehensive source online to provide the current status of the dengue situation worldwide. He emphasized the utility of a dashboard similar to those used during the Covid pandemic, noting its potential value for both governments and the general public.
Funded by £430,000 from the Axa Research Fund, the dengue dashboard will initially track the virus in 50 countries, with plans for gradual expansion. The tool will incorporate a forecasting feature that combines various data, including temperatures, rainfall, and infection rates, to predict transmission patterns in the coming months. This approach, based on a successful initiative in Vietnam, aims to benefit not only governments and researchers but also residents and tourists.
Dr. Brady hopes the dashboard, slated for launch next year, will be a valuable resource for travelers, providing real-time information on the situation in their destination and offering guidance on preventing mosquito bites and self-protection. This initiative comes at a time of record-breaking dengue transmission globally, attributed to factors such as climate change, the El Niño weather phenomenon, urbanization, and the easing of Covid-related restrictions.
