The by-elections in Punjab on Sunday (July 17) could be a litmus test for both the PTI and the ruling PML-N to bag Pakistan’s most populous and politically important province.
Imran Khan’s PTI lost its razor-thin majority in the Punjab Assembly in April, after 25 of its lawmakers sided with its rival, the PML-N, in the election for chief minister.
In the by-polls, the PTI is hoping to claw back to power in the province.
On the other side of the ring is the PML-N, which needs a big win to ensure that its newly-appointed chief minister, Hamza Shehbaz, retains his seat of power.
Twenty provincial constituencies are on the ballot after the Election Commission unseated 25 MPAs for voting against party lines. Of the 25, five lawmakers were on reserved seats and 20 on contestable seats.
Political pundits are expecting a tough contest between opponents PML-N and PTI in the by-polls as the majority of the 20 defecting PTI MPAs have hitched their wagons to the PML-N.
It is also important to mention that in the 2018 general elections, of the 20 MPAs who won the polls, 10 contested as independent candidates and later joined the PTI due to the efforts of businessman and politician, Jahangir Khan Tareen.
Who could win?
Here are some of the factors that go in each party’s favour:
PTI:
PTI has charged up and motivated voters, who are sold on Imran Khan’s foreign conspiracy narrative. These voters could give a tough time to the PML-N in constituencies that fall in urban areas, by turning up in large numbers on election day.
Strong local candidates like Yasir Khan Jatoi and Mozzam Khan Jatoi in Muzaffargarh or Saif Khosa in DG Khan can give the PTI an edge in five constituencies.
PML-N:
Tickets have been awarded to returning candidates, who won in 2018. These electables bring their own vote back.
PML-N is the ruling party and it is highly unlikely for a party in power to lose a by-election.
The PML-N candidates also have the support of the PPP and other PDM parties.
In by-elections, local politics, family standing and influence matter more than party politics.
Of all the by-elections held in Punjab from 2018 to 2021, the PML-N won a majority, even when the PTI was in power. Out of the 29 national and provincial constituencies which were up for grabs in Punjab, the PML-N was successful in 14, while the PTI won 10.
The 20 constituencies in which the by-polls are being held are:
- PP-7 Rawalpindi-II
- PP-83 Khushab-II
- PP-90 Bhakkar-II
- PP-97 Faisalabad-I
- PP-125 Jhang-II
- PP-127 Jhang-IV
- PP-140 Sheikhupura-VI
- PP-158 Lahore-XV
- PP-167 Lahore-XXIV
- PP-168 Lahore-XXV
- PP 170 Lahore-XXVII
- PP-202 Sahiwal-VII
- PP-217 Multan-VII
- PP-224 Lodhran-I
- PP-228 Lodhran-V
- PP-237 Bahawalnagar-I
- PP-272 Muzaffargarh-V
- PP-273 Muzaffargarh-VI
- PP-282 Layyah-III
- PP-288 Dera Ghazi Khan-IV
How will the by-polls affect the Punjab govt?
Hamza currently enjoys the support of 176 MPAs (including four independent MPAs and the lawmaker from Bahawalnagar) and Elahi has improved his tally from 168 in the April 16 contest to 173 after the Election Commission, as per LHC orders, notified five PTI MPAs against reserved seats from the priority list the party submitted before the 2018 general elections. The court had turned down the PML-N’s appeal for re-calculating the reserved seats after excluding the 20 de-seated PTI MPAs from the PTI’s numerical strength.
In the July 17 by-polls, if the PTI manages to grab at least 13 of the 20 seats, it may turn the tables on Hamza, who needs 10 seats to ensure a simple majority in the house.
