Ukraine’s cost to the US Hegemony

In pursuance of a consistent policy to contain Russia, the US and NATO have destroyed another country – Ukraine. Over the two-year period of the War, the lust to be pro-US has cost Ukraine huge losses unnecessarily. According to the UN, Ukraine has suffered at least 30,457 civilian casualties since February 2022, including 10,582 killed and 19,875 injured. The actual numbers are likely higher due to ongoing conflict and difficulties in verifying data, reports the UN News.

The data collected by the different agencies show that Ukrainian military casualties have been severe, with estimates of killed and wounded soldiers ranging significantly. As of early 2024, some reports suggested approximately 444,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed or injured since the start of the conflict. Large areas of the Donbas region have been contaminated with landmines and explosive remnants, contributing to nearly 1,200 casualties caused by mines or explosive devices since the start of the conflict in 2014.
The war has displaced millions of Ukrainians, with around 3.7 million internally displaced and nearly 6.5 million seeking refuge abroad. Over 14 million people have fled their homes since the full-scale armed-battle, profoundly disrupting lives and communities.

The war has caused widespread destruction of housing, public infrastructure, medical facilities, and schools. It is estimated that the reconstruction and recovery efforts needed in Ukraine will cost around $486 billion over the next decade due to the extensive damage caused by the conflict.

Over the two years of war, Ukraine’s agriculture and food security have faced significant setbacks. Total damages and losses to Ukraine’s agriculture sector have reached $80 billion, including $69.6 billion in lost farm income, production value, and increased costs due to disruptions in exports and logistics. The war caused a 7% reduction in cropland, leading to a $2 billion loss in harvests. Destruction of grain storage facilities, irrigation systems, and machinery has severely hindered production and export capacities. Millions of Ukrainians face food insecurity, with disrupted supply chains and increased production costs further threatening the country’s ability to sustain its agrifood sector.

An international institute IFPRI has reported that the Ukraine war has significantly impacted global food security and inflation in Europe and Africa as well. Ukraine, a major exporter of wheat, maize, and sunflower oil, faced blocked ports and disrupted production, leading to shortages and price hikes in global food markets. Countries dependent on Ukrainian grain, especially in Africa and the Middle East, have experienced severe food insecurity. The conflict has exacerbated food price inflation across Europe, with rising costs of energy and logistics contributing to higher prices for basic foodstuffs. This has put pressure on household budgets and increased the cost of living.

The accumulated losses of Ukraine highlight the devastating impact of the war on Ukraine’s people, infrastructure, and economy, with long-term consequences that will be felt for generations.

On the other hand, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Russia has experienced significant losses in the two years of armed-conflict but much less than it cost Ukraine in the love of the US and NATO. Russia’s estimated military casualties are around 250,000, including approximately 120,000 soldiers killed and 130,000 injured. The military equipment losses have gone over 8,800 armored fighting vehicles, 2,500 tanks, and hundreds of aircraft and artillery systems, as reported by the Western media. Even then the losses are less than those Ukraine has faced.

Economic Impact on Russia’s economy is also much higher with extensive military spending and sanctions leading to long-term financial repercussions, including significant losses in military equipment replacement and economic output. Russia’s economy contracted by 2.1% in 2022 due to sanctions and reduced export revenues, particularly from oil and gas. Inflation peaked at 17.8% in 2022, driven by supply chain disruptions and sanctions, affecting consumer prices across the board. Sanctions led to a significant reduction in Russia’s energy exports, with oil and gas revenue dropping by approximately 50%. Russia experienced a sharp decline in foreign investment, with over 1,000 companies withdrawing or reducing operations. The Russian ruble faced significant volatility, weakening against major currencies, which impacted import costs and financial stability. These economic challenges have led to long-term negative effects on Russia’s economic outlook, further strained by ongoing military expenses.

For the losses, the United States and its Western allies have invested heavily in supporting Ukraine during its conflict with Russia. As of August 2024, the U.S. has provided over $113 billion in total aid to Ukraine, with approximately $75 billion allocated directly for military and financial assistance. This includes about $46.6 billion in military aid, which has been primarily used for supplying weapons, equipment, and training to Ukrainian forces. Additionally, around $26.4 billion has been provided in financial assistance to help stabilize Ukraine’s economy and support government functions.

On the European front, the collective aid from EU member states, the U.K., and other European countries amounts to over €110.2 billion, with about half of this support being military in nature. The combined Western financial commitment to Ukraine thus totals approximately $227 billion, highlighting the substantial international effort to support Ukraine’s defense and humanitarian needs.

Strangely, the entire financial commitments of the US and the West, the unprecedented huge losses to the two countries, and the global impact of war could not bring the desired results against Russia or Ukraine. Even their support for genocide in Palestine could not completely overshadow the U.S. and NATO’s joint failures in the Ukraine war. No face saving at all at the moment.

The question is if the F-16 and training to more than 15000 Ukrainians and other military aid would serve the objective. Seems hard for Ukraine, the US, and NATO but more destruction to infrastructure, humanity, global food security, and inflation.

The writer is a geopolitical analyst and Director of Devcom-Pakistan. He can be reached at devcom.pakistan@gmail.com