The current global scenario is marked by various alliances and friendships among countries, which are causing unrest in the region. On one hand, we have the strong bond between Pakistan and China, as well as the collaboration between Russia and other Central Asian countries. On the other hand, there are signs of growing friendship between the United States, India and its allied countries. This evolving allegiance among the countries is disrupting the for the peace in the region and beyond.
The United States, being over 11,750 kilometers away from India, has always been concerned about the rise of China and its influence in the regional and transregional territories. Over time, the ambitions of the US and its allies have become more evident, as they actively pursue their interests regarding containment of China.
In this global emerging scenario, the main players are the United States and China, with the enmity between the US and Russia being well-known. The United States and NATO have created circumstances that forced Russia to take action in Ukraine. Prior to the invasion, Russia had repeatedly warned that Ukraine’s NATO membership would cross the red line and threatened its national security. In response, the United States, NATO countries, and other allies aligned themselves with Ukraine, providing it with weapons and all kinds of assistance. However, this support turned out to be more detrimental to Ukraine itself then Russia.
Many analysts, believe that if Russia had been assured in the past, or even now, that Ukraine would not be made the member of NATO, the war between Russia and Ukraine could have either not erupted or could be ended quickly. However, due to the support of Western countries and the United States, the war continues, causing suffering to the Ukrainian and impacting the world economy.
The changing global outlook and emerging geopolitical scenario are leading to increased tension between China and the United States, both world powers are looping in other countries as their respective allies. The US refers to this as the “Containment of China Policy,” which is a key aspect of its foreign policy. As part of this policy, the US is expending the formation alliances such as the Quad and AUKUS agreements, aiming to exert influence over maritime corridors and maintain hegemony. This enables the US to control or block China’s logistics channels whenever it deems necessary.
The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD), also known as Quad, is a strategic agreement between the United States, India, Japan, and Australia. It was initially held from 2007 to 2008 and then reactivated in 2017.
Similarly, AUKUS is a global agreement between the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia. It was established in September 2021 and takes its name from the initials of the three countries. While the main objective of AUKUS is to enhance security cooperation among the three nations, the key aspect of this agreement is the provision of nuclear-powered submarines to Australia in the Indo-Pacific region. The United Kingdom and the United States will jointly assist in this endeavor. In addition to submarines, the agreement also encompasses mutual defense cooperation in areas such as artificial intelligence, cyber defense, and advanced technologies.
The United States is increasingly concerned about China’s growing influence, economic power, and gradual increase in strategic defense capabilities. China’s progress has been recognized by US analysts for some time, leading to discussions about the need to learn Chinese as a language. This indicates that the Western world has long regarded China as a potential replacement for the US as a superpower, which the US aims to prevent at all cost. The US sees it as a critical issue, as China’s continued advancement could soon shrink the US and its allies’ monopoly in the region.
UNO can contact and appoint some universally accepted personality whose teachings emphasize human dignity, compassion, and patience. It is also a fact that under the influence of dynamic leaders, religious or otherwise, even powerful warlords and war veterans surrender.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which has attracted participation from nearly 150 countries, is a crucial factor to consider. The flagship project of this initiative is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which passes through Pakistani territory. CPEC not only serves China’s strategic interests but also benefits Central Asia. It is a vital infrastructure project for China, as it would provide a secure route for transporting petroleum products from Gwadar to China through the Pak China Energy Corridor. The completion of CPEC and the energy pipeline would significantly diminish the dominance of the US in the Indian and Indo- Pacific Ocean. The US and its allies are opposed to this becoming a reality and may seek to interfere and halt the project’s completion before its operational and strategic use. They may employ various means, including using India and other countries or engaging in covert actions, to disrupt or impede the project. The higher echelon in the intelligence communities has already echoed illustrating that through the fifth generation war India and its allies have already started impeding CPEC and are aiming at diluting the military strength Pakistan a nuclear arm country.
What is Fifth Generation War?
The concept of fifth generation war not alien to the region as refers to a type of warfare where traditional weapons are not employed. Instead, the opponent or enemy is defeated through the implementation of its own policies, strategies, and the active participation of its people, alongside the use of advanced technology. This approach involves a multifaceted strategy, which may include conventional warfare, cyber warfare, psychological operations, and collaboration with major global economic institutions. Additionally, it utilizes deceptive tactics such as spreading fake news and manipulating information on social media to shape perceptions and influence decision-making in the targeted country. Psychological operations are employed to sow confusion, fear, and suspicion among both the target population and adversaries. The objective of these psychological tactics is to undermine the morale and coordination of the enemy. Meanwhile, the country initiating the fifth generation war endeavors to maintain an appearance of indifference towards the entire process. This is based on the psychological principle that humans have always been afraid of invisible entities and creatures, but when confronted with a more terrifying threat which they can see, they find ways to eliminate or neutralize it. Consequently, in fifth generation warfare, the enemy prefers to remain hidden, and their exposure often leads to at least 50% of the defeat to the targeted countries as it is seemingly happening to Pakistan.
All operations in fifth generation warfare are carried out by non-state actors or individuals. Instead of openly engaging the enemy in combat, their vulnerabilities are exploited, often through cyber warfare techniques such as hacking, data theft, and disrupting infrastructure including damage to the economy. This approach aims to create chaos without causing significant physical destruction. Economic measures, such as prevention of investment, trade impediments and currency manipulation, are also utilized as part of fifth generation warfare to weaken the opposing country’s economy, as is currently being observed in Pakistan. The strategy of division in the society by exploiting the fault lines such as ethnic, sectarian, separatist and terrorist movement is also employed, which means that in this type of war, all moral considerations are set aside, and the targeted country like Pakistan is harmed in every possible way.
The Escalating America-China Rivalry: International Conflict and the Role of UNO
There is also an aspect of the ongoing fifth generation war in Pakistan that suggests the US is attempting to impede China’s progress towards the CPEC and the Belt and Road project. It is worth mentioning that during General Musharraf’s tenure, there was consideration of asking UNO, to take care of disputed territory of Kashmir. Under the supervision of the United Nations and the appointment of an administrator was proposed in the early stages. It was heard that a plan was devised to freeze all activities in both occupied and independent Kashmir for a period of 10 years. After this timeframe, India and Pakistan would revisit the issue to determine the future of Kashmir. If UNO were to lead this conflict resolution process, it could perhaps be acceptable to India, Pakistan, China, and America provided mutually agreed terms of reference are drawn.
Considering the interests of all governments involved in this region, it is crucial to adopt a conflict resolution philosophy that promotes a win-win outcome. It is important to note that UNO to its greater extent is viewed favorably by America and its allies, and China does not seem to object to his role as a facilitator to reduce tension in the region through his benevolent approach towards humanity. An essential point to consider is that UNO is conducting various projects in Gilgit-Baltistan, as well as in Central Asian countries. This essentially adds to geopolitical perspective of both China and Russia who desire to maintain peace that serves the purpose of their continuous influence over the Central Asian countries.
Amidst the dynamic shifts of our interconnected world, Pakistan stands at a crucial crossroads, beckoning us to embrace progress. To navigate this transformative journey, our Ministry of Foreign Affairs must rise to the occasion with visionary and versatile diplomats at the helm – a challenge that warrants immediate attention. The void is unmistakable, and addressing it is not just a choice, but an imperative. As the global stage evolves with unprecedented speed, there’s no margin for miscalculation in our strategy to navigate these intricate geopolitical waters. The repercussions of any missteps now could reverberate through generations, leaving Pakistan grappling with the consequences for centuries to come.
