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Home Opinion & Editorial Opinion

The fall of Bashar al-Assad regime: regional implications

Ambassador Dr. Jamil by Ambassador Dr. Jamil
December 8, 2024

Rebels have entered the capital Damascus after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad allegedly fled the country. According to media reports, thousands of people celebrated in the main square and chanted slogans of freedom.

The Syrian army command informed officers that President Bashar al-Assad’s government had effectively ceased to exist after the rebel attack.

Earlier, Bashar al-Assad had been missing from public view since Sunday. Citing two senior Syrian army officers, the news agency claimed that Bashar al-Assad had left for an unknown location on Sunday, about whose presence it is difficult to say anything with certainty at present. The rebels say that we are celebrating with the Syrian people the news of the release of our prisoners and the breaking of the chains of imprisonment. We declare that the era of injustice has ended.

The recent developments in Syria have proved to be a turning point in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. The Assad regime, which had been in power for 24 years, collapsed in a surprisingly short period of time, with the final offensive by opposition fighters ending decades of Alawite rule in less than a week. This collapse is a manifestation of the local and international dynamics that are shaping the future of the region.

Opposition fighters, for 13 years the HST (Syrian Opposition Groups Coalition) and other rebel factions resisted the Assad regime with the support of many neighboring countries. These groups, often associated with terrorist organizations such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS, were unable to capture the capital Damascus due to the unwavering support of Russia and Iran.

In the context of international dynamics, the global and especially regional response to the Syrian conflict has been controversial. The United States and Israel have been calling Iranian influence in Syria a threat to regional stability. The fall of the Assad regime would severely weaken Iran’s resistance axis. The loss of Syria would make it almost impossible for Iranians to continue with their lineup communication with Hezbollah and provide them the logistics including arms and ammunition.

On this occasion, Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali said that I do not intend to leave my home, it is necessary to ensure that government institutions continue to work, and that civilians and public property are protected. I urge everyone to think logically and about the country, we are reaching out to the opposition, which is reaching out to us.

On the other hand, Turkey’s strategic achievements are also important. Turkey will benefit significantly from these changes. The northern regions of Syria, which are mostly Kurds, have long been not only a center of conflict but also a headache for Turkey. With the prospect of the upcoming US government likely ending its presence in Syria, Turkey may see opportunities to increase its power, which will be favorable to Turkish interests in northern Syria.

In the changing future scenario, after the Trump administration comes to power after January 21, the spread of the Abraham Accords is seen increasing and pressure will start to mount on the rulers of many Islamic countries, and it seems difficult for Pakistan to avoid the situation. It means that US and Israeli influence is going to further grow in the region.

Iran, seeing itself in a tight spot, may not hesitate to use its remaining power. This means that Iran can use its lethal weapons, its missiles and drones to target Israel if it finds itself in a tight corner, leading to the existential threat.

The fall of the Assad regime not only marks a change of government within Syria but also signals a major shift in the balance of power in the Middle East. The emergence of Sunni groups, the spread of Turkish influence, and the challenges facing Iranian powers could all usher in a new political order in the region, the effects of which will be long-term.

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