No-confidence motion: Who will win and lose?

Political tensions in Pakistan have reached a climax and the opposition has declared a no-confidence motion in two days, while Prime Minister Imran Khan is trying to persuade allies to stop a possible no-confidence motion by the opposition.

The government is claiming to have made the movement a success. In such a scenario, the question arises as to whether the opposition will succeed in the no-confidence motion and who will benefit, and who will suffer from this tug of war.

No-confidence motion

Opposition parties have decided to bring a no-confidence motion against the Speaker of the National Assembly instead of the prime minister as the speaker may delay the motion of no-confidence against the premier for a long time which may cause difficulties to the opposition.

The no-confidence motion against the Prime Minister may take a long time to vote, which the speaker may add at will. The more time passes, the more the government will benefit.

Signatures of 80 members

According to media reports, the opposition drafted a no-confidence motion. The motion has the signatures of more than 80 opposition members. It has the signatures of PPP, PML-N, JUI-F, ANP, BNP Mengal, and others.

The proposed draft states that the country is in a state of economic crisis. There is no road map to get the country out of the economic crisis. There is political instability and uncertainty in the country, foreign policy has completely failed. 

According to the proposed draft, the Leader of the House has lost the confidence of the majority of this House. The opposition has also prepared a requisition to convene an assembly session. Opposition leader Shehbaz Sharif’s chamber was alerted. No-confidence motion and recusal can be filed at any time.

Voting against the speaker

A possible no-confidence motion against the Speaker of the National Assembly will not be used by secret ballot. The constitutional provision prohibiting change of allegiances against defectors will not apply. 

Under Article 226 of the Constitution, apart from the Prime Minister and Chief Ministers, elections to the House will be by secret ballot. Opposition circles, especially senior PPP leader Khurshid Shah, have spoken of bringing a possible no-confidence motion against Speaker Asad Qaiser. According to him, the role of the Presiding Officer in the no-confidence motion against the prime minister is of utmost importance.

Opposition claims

Maulana Fazlur Rehman, head of the opposition Pakistan Democratic Movement, has claimed that a no-confidence motion would be launched in the next 48 hours.

The PDM chief said that he is also in touch with former president Asif Ali Zardari and former prime minister Nawaz Sharif and government supporters. Both the no-confidence motion and the recusal of the meeting are being considered, our legal team is in touch, all matters are being looked into while the opposition has directed all its members of the assembly to reach Islamabad immediately.

Government preparations

The government has also taken action to stop a possible no-confidence motion by the opposition and PM Imran Khan himself seems to be very active in this regard. The Prime Minister met the leadership of the coalition party PML-Q a few days ago in which, according to media reports, the Chaudhry brothers have assured full support to Imran Khan while the MQM’s inclination towards the government is also clear.

Who will win?

PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has claimed the support of PTI MNAs while PTI Vice Chairman Shah Mehmood Qureshi said that not a single conscientious member of the PTI Assembly will be sold. Federal Interior Minister Sheikh Rasheed said that the no-confidence motion shakes the foundations of the country.

Regardless of the political tussle, it must be borne in mind that Pakistan has become very important in the global context at this time, Russia, Ukraine, after the conflict, the international community is looking at Pakistan with suspicion and in such a country political tension is the enemy. It may give a chance to the forces which may not benefit any political party but may harm Pakistan.