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There’s been a lot of buzz lately about a potentially hazardous asteroid, but don’t panic just yet. Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered recently, has a 1-in-83 chance (or 2.2%) of hitting Earth on December 22, 203
While it is anticipated that the asteroid will likely pass by without incident, the probability of a collision has been adjusted upward since its initial detection.
In January, the European Space Agency estimated the chances of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth at approximately 1%, while NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory later revised this figure to about 1.6% by the end of the month.
Officials from both organizations recognize the low probability of 2024 YR4 causing any issues, with the ESA suggesting that current risk assessments may be overly cautious due to uncertainties regarding some of the asteroid’s critical characteristics.
At present, astronomers estimate the asteroid’s diameter to be between 40 meters and 90 meters, equivalent to roughly 130 to 295 feet. For context, an American football field is 100 yards, or 300 feet, in length.
The ESA emphasized the importance of refining the size estimate for 2024 YR4, stating that “the hazard represented by a 40 m asteroid is very different from that of a 90 m asteroid.”
Should the asteroid impact Earth in 2032, the effects would be localized. Nevertheless, 2024 YR4 has been assigned a Level 3 rating on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, a relatively uncommon classification indicating “a close encounter” that merits both public and scientific scrutiny.
