Gold prices are on track for a historic rally as global economic uncertainties drive investors toward the precious metal, with experts predicting prices could soon touch Rs. 470,000 per tola in Pakistan.
Internationally, gold prices have surged past $3,326 per ounce, pushing the domestic price to Rs. 349,700 per tola in Pakistan. But this could be just the beginning.
According to analysts, if the global price climbs to $3,700 per ounce—a level projected by global investment firm Goldman Sachs—the price of gold in Pakistan could rise to approximately Rs. 389,000 per tola. And if it touches the much-anticipated $4,500 per ounce amid worsening trade tensions and policy uncertainties, domestic prices could skyrocket to nearly Rs. 473,000 per tola, marking a historic high.
The current momentum is largely being fueled by economic uncertainty stemming from renewed tariff policies introduced by former US President Donald Trump. “The safe-haven demand has spiked as investors worry about the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs,” said Anuj Gupta, Head of Commodity and Currency at HDFC Securities, in a report by IANS. “According to US Fed Chair Jerome Powell, a one per cent hike in tariffs could reduce US economic growth by 0.10 per cent.”
Gupta added that gold remains one of the strongest hedges against uncertainty. Despite recent gains in the stock market, the underlying triggers supporting gold, such as inflation, central bank buying, and geopolitical tensions, remain intact. Any correction in gold should be seen as a buying opportunity.”
Navneet Damani, Group Senior Vice President at Motilal Oswal, echoed similar views. “Persistent trade tensions, inflationary pressures, and central bank gold purchases will continue to support prices,” he said. “As long as global policy uncertainty and trade issues persist, gold will remain an attractive asset.”
For Pakistani investors and jewelers, this trend could reshape the local market. With gold priced in US dollars globally, any international surge directly impacts domestic rates, especially as the local market continues to mirror global trends closely. The sharp rally in the past weeks already reflects that relationship.
As the global outlook grows increasingly uncertain, experts say the path to Rs. 470,000 per tola may not be far off — a warning and an opportunity for those watching the bullion market closely.
