After the “Black Friday” crash that saw gold prices evaporate by over Rs.61,000 per tola in just 48 hours, investors in Pakistan are standing at a crossroads, caught between the urge to “buy the dip” and the fear of a deeper floor.
The question for gold bugs is no longer “How high can it go?” but rather, “Where does the bleeding stop?”
Predicting a further decline in gold is a game of “technical correction” versus “long-term panic.”
While the recent crash of Rs. 61,000 in 48 hours feels like the floor has fallen out, here is what the data suggests for the coming days.
The Near-Term Prediction: “The Consolidation Phase”
Most market analysts in Pakistan and globally suggest that while the most “brutal” part of the sell-off is likely over for the immediate 24-hour window, we are currently in a correction zone.
In Pakistan, the price is currently hovering around Rs. 511,862. Technical analysts see a strong support level at Rs. 495,000 to Rs. 500,000.
If the US dollar continues to strengthen following the “Trump Fed Pick” news, we could see an additional decline of Rs. 10,000 to Rs. 15,000 per tola before the market stabilizes.
Factors Pushing the Price DOWN
Big investors who bought gold when it was at Rs. 300,000–Rs. 400,000 are “panic-selling” to lock in their massive profits before the price drops any further.
Recent remarks from the US administration regarding potential de-escalation with Iran have removed the “war premium” that was artificially inflating the price.
Factors That Will STOP the Decline
In Pakistan, a drop this large usually triggers a massive wave of retail buying for weddings, which creates a “floor” that prevents the price from crashing to extreme lows.
| Scenario | Prediction | Advice |
| Short Term (1-3 Days) | A further dip of Rs. 5k–10k is possible. | Wait. Let the “panic selling” settle. |
| Medium Term (2-4 Weeks) | Stabilization around Rs. 505,000. | Buy. This is a healthy “reset” before the next rally. |
| Long Term (End of 2026) | Forecasts still point toward $5,000/oz (Rs. 600k+). | Hold. The overall trend for the year remains bullish. |
