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Opposition parties have created a new political storm after announcing a no-confidence motion against the government. The high-profile manner in which the opposition is making their announcement doesn’t look like they are bluffing. The opposition deliberately wants to make this the focus of media, political gossip, and drawing room discussion. This is why the cards are being cleverly played this way.

There are two benefits to doing so. One is the morale of the opposition leaders, lawmakers, and workers increases when others are with them. The second advantage is it is now being discussed on every forum and everyone likes it to remain important. The only downside is that when the issue is taken to a high pitch, the stakes are raised and it becomes difficult to walk back.

If we look at this political move of the opposition, a few things are clear. Asif Zardari has a key role to play in this development. The experienced politician from Sindh suddenly came to Punjab and quickly created a political wave. Previously, we heard rumours of a meeting between Nawaz Sharif and establishment officials in London. The situation then remained calm.

Zardari came to Lahore and met Shahbaz Sharif. It is said that elder Sharif was also present via video conference. This meeting created a conducive environment between the main opposition parties. Zardari later met the Chaudhry brothers and paved the way for Shehbaz Sharif to meet them after more than a decade. At the moment, the establishment does not seem to be behind this move. Are they neutral or less concerned? Are they looking at how weak the opposition is and can pull it on their own?

If the establishment was behind this move, first the MQM would have expressed reservations with the prime minister. Then the Chaudhrys might suddenly become worried about inflation and proclaim the government has increased the prices. At the same time, Jahangir Tareen group would also stand with them. In Balochistan, the allied BAP are already flexing their muscles and will jump over any indication.

The establishment will only join the political game at a later stage. We can’t say much at the moment. It is a known fact that no in-house change has ever come without the establishment’s permission nor will it ever. A section of the opposition demanded that the establishment, referred politically as the ruling forces, should remain neutral and stop preventing the government from collapsing.

The establishment’s neutrality would also prove disadvantageous for the opposition. A well-known politician disgruntled with Imran Khan commented that if the establishment did not intervene, the government will benefit as it has more financial resources but does not just empty promises to MNAs but can provide a lot further.

Observers cite a no-confidence motion against Benazir Bhutto’s first government. At that time Nawaz Sharif was the Chief Minister of Punjab. Benazir had formed a fragile government at the Centre and the establishment was strongly against her. Still, the no-confidence motion against Benazir Bhutto failed. This time too in the event of the establishment’s neutrality, the government will have a chance to work by making attractive offers to allies or persuading disgruntled members.

The Chaudhrys of Gujarat have become very important in this whole scenario. It is not possible to bring change in Punjab without them. For a successful in-house change in the National Assembly too, it is very important to get the Chaudhry on board. The important point is that everyone should see what the benefit of change is.

Chaudhry will calculate everything well so will Jahangir Tareen’s like-minded group while the rest of the allied factions will also try to get a better bargain for themselves. Another thing is that Chaudhry, PPP and Tareen group do not want immediate elections. They want to stay in the assemblies for at least one more year to reap the benefits. Only the PML-N wants to dissolve the assemblies and hold snap elections. It believes that if elections are held now, it will sweep Punjab and will be in a position to form the next government. Maulana Fazlur Rehman also benefits from this as he himself is sitting outside parliament and his party in the KP Assembly cannot bring in-house change.

If Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi is made the Chief Minister of Punjab for the remainder of the term, he may agree. The PPP would have no objection to this. The PML-N will think about it as making Chaudhry as chief minister will give him space in the next elections. Another hurdle is that the Sharif family is notorious for not fulfilling its promises. The PPP has also complained about it and Chaudhry cannot rely on the promises of the Sharif family.

There is still much to be done. The beginning of a series of meetings is also a development but the pot has not yet been put on the stove. It is also being said that the numbers are not complete yet. Until the coalition breaks up, there is no threat to the government at the Centre because, under the 18th Amendment, any PTI member who sides with the opposition will be immediately disqualified.

Political allies MQM, PML-Q, GDA can formulate their own strategy as there is no constitutional restriction on them. The situation is that the opposition is moving towards a no-confidence motion but does not have the confidence to bring a motion. On the contrary, it may give a surprise by doing their homework well. However, there are still challenges for the opposition as they have to set many goals.

The government also has many options. If Imran Khan shows political maturity and uses his ministers (Pervez Khattak, Fawad Chaudhry, Sheikh Rashid, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, etc.) on the frontlines, then it will benefit him. And if the prime minister manages to convince the establishment to leave neutrality and support him, it will be a winning shot for him.