Who will form the next govt?

The term of the current parliament will end in July 2023. Therefore, the question of the next elections in 2022 seems to be premature. In political circles, however, the debate has begun. Key leaders and local political factions have started their campaign. The simple question is who will win the next election?

There is a conspiracy theory behind all this. It is rumored that Prime Minister Imran Khan may hold general elections at the end of the third quarter of next year(September-October 2022). There are two main reasons for this: First to hold elections before certain important positions expire, second to hold elections before a judge with strong inflexibility takes office.

By the way, this is a conspiracy theory, but the sharp noses of political activists are feeling the scent of reality in it. Regular work is going on in this regard in the three major political parties PTI, PML-N and PPP.

Despite all the support from the ruling circles, PTI has two major fears. How to appeal for vote after a failed performance and rising prices of essential items (flour, ghee, sugar, petrol, electricity, gas)? Secondly, another party may persuade their patrons. Thus, they may have to deal with the brutality of the voters while contesting a tough, difficult election without compassion.

The PTI’s plan is simple and consists of three points. The PML-N, its biggest opponent, should be kept under constant pressure (with various tricks) so that it cannot be united before the elections. The political temperature remained high, the atmosphere of intense dissent should be maintained with the help of media and social media so that they could tell their hard core supporters that we did not give NRO to Sharif, Zardari family.

The third point of PTI’s plan is to contest elections in the classical style of PML-N. Rely on powerful candidates. For this purpose, the impression of being a pro-establishment party should be used. The PTI now understands how important this impression is. Political activists and powerful people at the local level always support the winning candidate.

PML-N used its major development projects in the election campaign. But unfortunately, PTI failed to start a major project. Now, they are thinking to announce a people-friendly budget next year, in which the salaries of government employees and pensioners should be significantly increased.

Relief should be given in some things, petrol prices will be reduced at the time of budget. They will further expand health. Spending on media management and advertising these days will be further increased in the coming months.

The real problem of PML-N is a division within the leadership. Mian Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam Nawaz give the impression of taking a tough stand and advancing their specific slogans. On the other hand, Shahbaz Sharif’s formula is simple. He says that we have to neutralize the ‘forces’ in a soft and moderate way so that there is an open field for everyone in the election.

Shahbaz is well aware that in such a situation, the PML-N can take advantage of its long political experience, strong political factionalism, and public unrest. PML-N hopes that it will win the elections, even it failed to gain majority, it has the option to form a coalition government.

From a political point of view, the PPP has created the most turmoil. Zardari has directed Bilawal Bhutto to visit every corner of the country and hold political contacts and meetings. Zardari himself is active in Sindh and has a keen eye on every development. He hopes that the PPP can increase its seats by finding strong candidates in South Punjab and some other areas.

He has included many important personalities in Balochistan, he also wants to make the party active in KPK. The PPP feels that it will not be able to get a majority by exerting full force, yet it will not be able to form a coalition government in the form of a suspended parliament.

Smaller parties have their own complexities and goals. Maulana Fazlur Rehman has suffered in the cantonment board elections. In the local body elections, he will focus on the southern districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. He has strong pockets in Balochistan.

Meanwhile, Jamaat-e-Islami has shown some better performance in Karachi. The party wants to get a few seats from Karachi in the local body elections and then in the general elections. The other focus of the party is Dir, Buner and Chitral districts of KP.

The ANP hopes to get some share in Peshawar, it also wants to be an alternative to Achakzai’s party in Balochistan. In Baloch nationalist parties, there may be an atmosphere of a small alliance or seat adjustment before the election. In the case of early elections, each party has its own plan. Let’s see who is lucky this time?