Global Normalcy Index aims to determine which countries are returning to their pre-pandemic levels, and grades each country using eight indicators split into three categories: transport, recreation and commercial activity (including eight indicators; Time not at home, retail, office use, public transport, road traffic, flights, cinema and sports attendance). Pakistan has been ranked number 1 in The Economists’ world normalcy index as the country lifted most of its COVID-19 restrictions imposed to curb the virus spread.
The normalcy index offers some evidence about how people are responding to restrictions in real-time. Pakistan is followed by Nigeria, Britain and Germany on the list. According to the Global Normalcy Index, Pakistan is one of the only two countries where normalcy is higher than 100, suggesting that activity is above pre-pandemic levels. The index monitors 50 countries, which together account for 75% of the global population and 90% of GDP. As per The Economist’s monitor, normalcy has decreased in 42 of the countries over the last four weeks as they grapple with the spread of Omicron. Pakistan and Egypt are two countries that have made most gains as far as recovery and return to normalcy post-Covid. In an indicator that tracks activity since March 2020, surprisingly, none of the developed economies make it to the top-10 list. China is one of three countries where normalcy has decreased in recent months.
Importantly, the list also did not suggest that an economy lower on the Normalcy Index was performing worse than an economy at a higher level. The more developed economy just has not reached its high 2020 economic activity level or it may have changed the way it conducts some of those activities — the last being the index’s more important point. The report states that despite the fact that 90% of adults in China are double-vaccinated, there is no indication that the government intends to go back to normal day-to-day routine. With a score of 84.4, Pakistan ranked third among 50 countries tracked by the Economist magazine for return to pre-pandemic life. Pakistan’s neighbour India has a score of 46.5, ranking it near the bottom in 48th position. China (score 72.9) is 19th, United States (72.8) 20th, United Arab Emirates (68.9) 27th and United Kingdom (62.5) 36th the global average for return to pre-pandemic activity is 66.6 on a scale of 0 to 100. Most dynamic economies had elevated levels of economic activity before the virus put an end to them. So, those countries that take stringent action against the virus, China and a few more, naturally see greater fall in economic activity. Few would disagree that these are well-governed states and even at low normalcy levels, their economies are more buoyant than Pakistan’s.
Pakistan has been ranked number 1 in The Economists’ world normalcy index as the country lifted most of its COVID-19 restrictions imposed to curb the virus spread.
Since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020 many have wondered when the world will return to “normal”. But whether things will ever go back to the way they were is unclear: remote working looks set to continue, for example, and going to the movies may never be as popular as it used to be. The emergence of the Omicron variant in late November threatens to undo much of the progress the world has made in inoculating its citizens. COVID-19, an epochal event, has considerably changed world dynamics. The coronavirus crawled across the globe and left unprecedented traces of ravaged life. It travelled from one person to another and affected millions by reaching every corner of the earth. Every aspect of human life and culture is affected to some degree. It is a chronic health condition that poses not only severe health risks for people of all ages but has a knock-on effect on an individual’s day-to-day life and state mechanism. Businesses of all kinds except the health sector are disrupted. World trade has come to a complete halt. World trade is expected to contract between 13% to 32% in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic disrupts normal economic activity and life around the world.
Although much of the population in richer countries of the world is now vaccinated, COVID-19 lingers, cases are likely to rise in the coming months as cold weather in the northern hemisphere forces people to spend more time inside. Yet policy-makers may worry that complacency about COVID-19, especially among the vaccinated, will lead to people ignoring new restrictions and not using face masks. Timely actions by Pakistan National Command Operations Center (NCOC) have helped control the third COVID19 wave in the country. The vaccination rates are still very low. With news all bad, it makes sense for government to clutch at the weakest straw that brings it pretences of glory. The index assessed the scale at which an economy was currently operating compared to a pre-pandemic level and how consumer behavior may have changed. Also, the index was a comparison with the pre-pandemic economic activity but not at all “a measure of economic dynamism or performance”. So, an economy in sub-Saharan Africa, not especially prosperous in 2020, could have a higher Global Index score in 2022 than that of, say, Singapore. It merely means that despite the virus, economic activity of that country is closer to reaching the level of early 2020.
Economic activity in Pakistan “was already at a snail’s pace before the pandemic. A number of mishaps from poor decision-making and lack of judgment had brought it to a halt”. The economy had to face the hubris of an FBR with all guns blazing on a mission to end tax evasion. In effect, it put an end to most business transactions. The SBP was celebrating inflow of forex to Pakistan. That money came at 13% interest and cost “us dearly in interest in forex. Just then, sudden and thoughtless massive devaluation of the rupee had left the economy reeling in disequilibrium”. FY19 had a growth rate of below 2 % and FY20 of minus 0.5 %. In FY 20, the virus affected the economy in just its three last months, not enough to cause negative growth. The pandemic may have saved the country’s economy. It gave a reason to put a hold on the rigour imposed by the IMF which encouraged economies to inject liquidity and rapidly released $1.4bn to Pakistan. Pakistan stood at 106.6. The USA was at 69.5, Japan 69, Vietnam 67.6, China 65.7 and South Korea 65.5. All economies in the latter group have much higher vaccination rates than Pakistan, a major condition for return to normalcy. They have far better health and social services and had also made vast amounts of capital infusion, over $3 trillion by the USA alone. Clearly, they had very high levels of economic activity and it will take a while for them to get back to those levels.
Rezwan Ullah, Beijing Institute of Technology, also contributed to this article.
