Gilgit-Baltistan’s election: Who will rule the region?

The federal government on 23 September had announced through a notification that elections for the Legislative Assembly of strategically-located Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) would be held on Nov 15.

The elections on the 24 general seats of the GB Legislative Assembly were earlier scheduled to be held on 18 Aug but were later postponed due to the coronavirus threats.

The new date of the elections had been announced amid reports of an agreement between the government and the opposition parties to hold consultations on the proposal of granting provisional provincial status to GB after the elections.

Gilgit-Baltistan-Area -Population 

Gilgit-Baltistan covers an area of over 72,971 km2 (28,174 sq mi) and is highly mountainous. It had an estimated population of 1.249 million in 2013 (estimated at 1.8 million in 2015.

GB is administratively divided into three divisions: Baltistan, Diamer and Gilgit, which, in turn, are divided into fourteen districts. The principal administrative centers are the towns of Gilgit, Diamer and Skardu.

Gilgit-Baltistan borders Pakistan’s Khyber Pukhtunkhwa province to the west, a small portion of the Wakhan Corridor of Afghanistan to the north, China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region to the northeast, the Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir to the southeast, and the Pakistani-administered state of Azad Jammu and Kashmir to the south.

Third-time elections on 15th November

The first elections for the Legislative Assembly were held on 12 November 2009. Gilgit-Baltistan Legislative Assembly had been changed into Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly by the Ministry of Kashmir Affairs and Gilgit-Baltistan vides order S.R.O. 2018 (1)/704 issued on 1 June 2018 – Prime Minister of Pakistan has the authority to veto any law made by the Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly.

The five-year term of the previous assembly had ended on June 24, bringing an end to the five-year rule of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).

Tenure of Hafiz Hafeezur Rehman

The tenure of Hafiz Hafeezur Rehman of the PML-N as chief minister was generally peaceful. No major incident of violence occurred when compared to previous PPP rulers under whom GB saw sporadic violence from 2012 to 2014.

However, the PML-N government came under sharp criticism by human rights and political activists as it sought to curb free speech and a free press.

The government was blamed for taking harsh and coercive measures against local journalists and political activists as well as accused of silencing critical voices by including the names of some individuals in the Fourth Schedule of the Anti-Terrorism Act and sending others behind bars in unproven cases.

Over 548 candidates submit papers

About 554 candidates from 24 constituencies have submitted nomination papers for general elections in Gilgit-Baltistan

According to GB election commission, there are 86 candidates for three seats in Gilgit district, 63 candidates for two seats in Nagar, 31 for one seat in Hunza, 67 for four seats in Skardu, 11 for one seat in Kharmang, five for one seat in Shigar, 66 for two seats in Astore, 67 for four seats in Diamer, 84 for three seats in Ghizer and 47 for three seats in Ghanche.

Total of 330 people contesting elections

For these 24 seats, 548 candidates originally filed their papers. Of these, however, 218 later withdrew from the race.

A total of 330 people are now standing in the elections. The PML-Q is fielding candidates in 14 constituencies. And the PTI has issued party tickets to 22 people and expressed its support for Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen’s candidates in two constituencies.

The PPP, which suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of the PML-N in 2015, announced candidates for all 24 constituencies. Many of the PPP candidates are seasoned politicians and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari is running the campaign.

GB’s youth will play a decisive role in the election

GB youth have a long history of political struggle, for example, against the colonial-era of the Frontier Crimes Regulation and the feudal system. Various political organizations were established by the youth from the 1950s to 1970s.

Many migrated to study or work in cities, mainly Karachi, Rawalpindi and Islamabad. In these cities, the Gilgit-Baltistan United Organisation, the GB Action Committee, the Ladakh Baltistan Muttahida Mahaz, the GB Students’ Federation, the Idara Taraqqi-i-Hunza and many others were formed.

Students used these platforms to demand political rights for the people of GB, the abolition of the FCR and the end of feudal rule. Within the region, organizations such as the Gilgit League and the Tanzeem-i-Millatwere founded against the FCR and to demand political rights.

Compared to the provinces, GB has an exceptionally high literacy rate. Many students who study in universities of other cities — owing to the lack of higher education opportunities within the region — are currently in their native towns and villages.

Exposed to metropolitan life, and having a modern education, their vote is going to play a decisive role.

PTI likely to rule GB

As per the National Database and Registration Authority (NADRA) and the Election Commission of Pakistan, there are 6, 18,364 registered voters in the region with 3, 29,475 men and 2, 88,889 women.

An estimated 700,000 people will exercise their right to elect 24 legislators of 33 constituencies whereas six seats are reserved for women and three for technocrats.

Three members of the legislative assembly will be elected from central Gilgit, three from District Hunza Nagar, six from Skardu, two from Astor, four from Diamer, three from Ghizer and three from Ganche. 17 seats are needed to form the government.

Of the total population of 12.5 lakh in GB, the Shia community dominates with 39.85 %, and Sunni 30.05 %, Ismaili 24% and Noorbakhshis 6.1%.

GB legislative assembly of 33 members strength, dissolved after completion of a five-year term on June 24, 2020, which was being headed by Hafiz Hafeez-ur-Rehman of the PML-N.

The previous government was ruled by Pakistan Muslim League (N) with a majority member of 22 members whereas Tehreek-e-Jaffna had 4, Majlis Wahadat–e-Muslimeen- 3, Pakistan Peoples Party- 1, PTI- 1, Muttahida Qaumi Movement- 1 and Balwarstin National Front- 1 member.

According to my opinion and historical ground realities, it has been the practice that whosoever rules Islamabad, controls Gilgit-Baltistan.

According to political assessment, Pakistan Taherik Insaf (PTI) will capture 12 to 14, PPP 3-4, PML (N) 2-3, JI and Nationalist each one.

Balawaristan National Front, led by Nawaz Khan Naji, who has won from Ghizar-I twice will retain his seat again because of his popularity and voice against Pakistan’s carrot and stick policy adopted for the region.