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Pakistan is weathering a furious political storm at home, along with an economic crisis. But at this year’s United Nations climate change conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt known as COP27, Pakistan currently chairs the G-77 group, comprised of 134 developing countries at the U.N. and Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, is a vice chair of COP27.
Before the conference began, Islamabad succeeded in putting the issue of “loss and damage” onto the summit agenda. As currently envisioned, loss and damage financing would involve developed countries providing support to developing countries on the front lines of the climate crisis. Climate Change Conference (COP27) discussed a range of issues including loss and damage, climate finance, adaptation, and mitigation over the next two weeks. This combined with Pakistan’s presidency of the G77 this year have afforded Pakistan a significant place on international stage to make its case for continued support toward post-flood recovery and reconstruction. Food needs to be grown and processed, transported, distributed, prepared, consumed and, sometimes, disposed of. Each of these steps creates greenhouse gases (GHGs) that trap the sun’s heat and contribute to climate change. About a third of human-caused GHG emissions are linked to food. The largest chunk of food-related GHGs comes from agriculture and land use, methane from cattle, nitrous oxide from fertilizers and carbon dioxide from deforestation for farmland. A smaller share of GHG emissions comes from the refrigeration and transport of food, industrial processes, like the production of paper and aluminum for packaging, and the management of food waste.
Developed countries have long resisted such a policy, fearing it will make them vulnerable to continuous demands for compensation, given their outsized production of greenhouse gas emissions. But Pakistan has a golden opportunity to make the case for wealthy countries to embrace loss and damage aid and for international donors to make new commitments for aid focused on adaptation and mitigation. However, it remains to be seen how Pakistan will take advantage of this opportunity. Will Pakistani leaders be able to present a coherent and convincing case for further assistance from the international community in both the short- and long-term? Or will the fractured nature of the country’s domestic political landscape overshadow relief and recovery efforts? The challenges facing the Sharm El Sheikh Climate conference are dire. Global carbon emissions and de- forestation, the two main drivers of climate change, have never been higher. The world’s temperature has already increased by more than 1.1 degrees Celsius and climate experts say that in a business as usual scenario it is likely to touch 1.5 C within a few years, the guardrail set in the Paris Agreement before the planet becomes too hot for humans and other species. At the Sharm El Sheikh meeting, governments will have to summon the political will to pledge sharp and rapid emission cuts amounting to 45 per cent of the accumulated carbon stock, prescribed by climate science.
While we won’t know the total impact of the 2022 floods for weeks or even months, the human cost is already stark. As of mid-October, 33 million people (one out of every seven Pakistanis) were affected by the floods, with 8 million estimated to have been displaced. The death toll directly caused by the floods was roughly 1,700, one-third of which were children. And as Pakistan enters the recovery phase, the government estimates that over 9 million people could be pushed into poverty, with 19 of the 25 poorest districts in Pakistan deemed “calamity-affected”. Add in an estimated $30 billion in damages and economic losses, and the situation in Pakistan appears even more dire. Pakistan also owes $1 billion in debt obligation payments by the end of the year. The additional economic strain presented by the floods has led to serious concerns that Pakistan will not be able to meet this payment. Up until now, the rallying cry from the current PML-N/PPP government has focused on climate justice. However, the narrative has expanded to include debt relief and climate financing. During his trip to the U.N. General Assembly, Prime Minister Sharif made a forceful argument for debt relief as a part of climate justice, stating that “all hell will break loose” if rich nations do not provide Pakistan with debt relief. On Monday at COP27, Prime Minster Sharif, standing alongside U.N. Secretary General António Guterres, reiterated the call for debt relief and climate compensation for Pakistan as public debt was “hampering its recovery”. Even Guterres called upon the international community and multilateral lending institutions to reform their polices and allow for debt swaps, especially in the aftermath of natural disasters.
Pakistan’s minister for climate change has also stated that climate justice will be the cornerstone of Pakistan’s diplomatic approach for COP27, noting that “Pakistan will seek to put the creation of a Loss and Damage Finance Facility on the agenda”. A blank check for purely development assistance will not help Pakistan. The Pakistan state, at all levels, needs to focus on longer-term technical assistance and build their own internal capacity to create resilience to future natural disasters. At COP27, international partners and possible donors will be looking for indications that Pakistan is ready to commit to this sort of forward-thinking strategy for tackling its climate change challenges in the years ahead. Given the scale and scope of the disaster, there is no sustainable recovery without international support. Which is why a comprehensive plan from the Pakistani side is imperative, especially if Pakistan can achieve a debt for climate swap from its international lenders. There can be no missteps from the ruling government on a single message. Meanwhile, there is always more to be done domestically: Poor governance decisions often exacerbate climate change impacts in South Asia, including Pakistan’s recent floods. These include unregulated deforestation, subsidies for wasteful forms of irrigation, and poor urban planning. The region makes a strong case for loss and damage relief, but that doesn’t absolve it of the need to make other course corrections. COP27 must help unlock private and public financing for adaptation and mitigation, which will need $125 trillion to reach net zero by 2050. The Pakistan Pavilion at COP27 also hosted panel discussions on the topic of ‘A Survival story from the Delta: The Mangroves of Pakistan’. The Pakistan Pavilion will be holding panel discussions every day till November 17th on several topics that will inform participants at COP27 about Pakistan’s ongoing efforts to combat climate stress.
