Anti-communist protests sweep Central and Eastern Europe, starting in Poland and spreading throughout the Soviet bloc. In Ukraine, January 1990 witnessed more than 400,000 people joining hands in a human chain stretching some 400 miles from the western city of Ivano-Frankivsk to Kyiv, the capital, in the North-Central part of Ukraine. Many waved the blue and yellow Ukrainian flag that had been banned under Soviet rule.
Ukraine is a Texas-size country wedged between Russia and Europe. It was part of the Soviet Union until 1991, and since then has been a less than perfect democracy with a very weak economy and foreign policy that wavers between pro-Russian and pro-European. It used to be “the Ukraine” but after breaking away from the Soviet Union in 1991 the name changed to just “Ukraine”. That distinction actually turns out to be pretty important for understanding the current crisis. Ukraine has a very long history of being subjugated by outside powers and a very short history of national independence. That may actually be why the country became known as “the Ukraine” which many historians think meant “the borderland” in the language of ancient Slavs (it may also mean “the homeland”, a theory that Ukrainian nationalists understandably prefer). In other words, it may have been called “the” because it was considered more of a geographic region than an independent country, and one defined by its in-between-ness.
The war has centered on the status of Crimea and parts of the Donbas, which are internationally recognized as part of Ukraine. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine erupted especially from 2021 to 2022, when it became apparent that Russia was considering launching a military invasion of Ukraine. Russia considers Ukraine becoming more integrated with NATO as a threat to its national security and has demanded that military alliance does not expand eastward to Ukraine or other former Soviet states. It has also demanded that NATO roll back its military deployments in Central and Eastern Europe.
Tensions over the Ukraine-Russia crisis had been simmering for more than two months with diplomatic efforts to resolve the issue showing little sign of progress.
Russia is the world’s third-biggest oil producer and second-biggest producer of natural gas, ranking among the top energy suppliers to the US and China, the world’s top two economies. In 2020, Russia provided 7% of the US petroleum and crude oil imports, making it the country’s third-biggest supplier alongside Saudi Arabia. That is one likely reason that the US signaled that sanctions against Russia would not be aimed at the country’s energy sector. Despite this, US President Joe Biden announced sanctions against a firm building the $11bn Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which is not yet in operation. War in Ukraine could also disrupt key pipelines in the country that supply Europe with natural gas.
The rising global tensions have caused oil prices to surge and stock markets to crash. Brent crude prices hit $100 per barrel, the highest mark since September 2014, following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s deployment of troops to separatist areas Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine. While the West has termed it a blatant violation of international law, the rising global tensions and threat of invasion in Ukraine have caused oil prices to surge and stock markets to crash.
The spike has been driven primarily by fears of supply side disruptions as the Russian invasion in Ukraine looms large following Putin’s deployment of troops to separatist areas Donetsk and Luhansk. Oil prices have been rising over the last couple of months on concerns over supply, following tensions between Russia, the world’s second-largest oil producer, and Ukraine. There is also concern over the growing imbalance between demand and supply following the opening up and normalization of the global economy after the Omicron wave subsided. The price of dated Brent, or the price of physical North Sea crude oil cargoes, set to be delivered on specific dates, have already crossed $100 per barrel. Brent futures rallied above $105 as Russia launched an attack on its neighbour, though prices subsequently retreated as it emerged that Western governments wouldn’t impose sanctions on energy exports in retaliation. Still, buyers like China are shunning Russia’s flagship Urals grade on concern that the rupture in international relations may yet complicate dealings with Moscow.
Steadily rising oil prices are already affecting gasoline prices in the United States. Americans are paying nearly a dollar more for a gallon of gas to roughly $5 in some markets than they did last year. Analysts have said sanctions against Russia, responsible for roughly 10% of the world’s oil supply, could disrupt Europe’s energy supply and send price shocks across the globe. Along with that this tension causes energy markets are messed up, inflation is set to go even higher and invasion marks yet more uncertainty for markets after a big correction in January.
Rezwan Ullah, Beijing Institute of Technology, also contributed to this article.
