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Home Uncategorized

Will the Afghan Taliban be able to seize control of Kabul?

Kumail Soomro by Kumail Soomro
March 24, 2022
Speed of Taliban advance shocks government and allies. Source: Al-Jazeera.

Speed of Taliban advance shocks government and allies. Source: Al-Jazeera.

The speed by which the Taliban are advancing across Afghanistan has shocked the government and raised fears among Afghan civilians. US President Biden said he doesn’t regret the decision to withdraw US forces and said it is now up to Afghans to defend their country.

The Taliban have taken control of northeastern Afghanistan and have launched a bid towards their eventual target – Kabul.  There are concerns that the Taliban could seize control to retake the Afghan capital.

Taliban could take Kabul

According to US intelligence sources, Taliban fighters could isolate Afghanistan’s capital in 30 days and possibly take it over in 90, as the resurgent militants took control of an eighth provincial Afghan capital.

The new assessment of how long Kabul could stand was a result of the rapid gains the Taliban had been making around the country. Afghan security forces could reverse the momentum by putting up more resistance but even Afghan lawmakers have expressed doubts over the capability.

The Taliban now control 65% of Afghanistan and have taken or threaten to take 11 provincial capitals. All gateways to Kabul are choked with civilians entering the city and fleeing violence elsewhere leading to suspicions that Taliban fighters were also getting through.

Faizabad, capital of the northeastern province of Badakhshan, was the latest setback for the Afghan government, which has been struggling to stem the momentum of Taliban assaults. With the fall of Faizabad, the whole of the northeast has come under Taliban control.

Afghan army chief sacked

The Afghanistan government has removed Chief of Army Staff Lt Gen Wali Mohammad Ahmadzai from his post due to the advances by the Taliban. Ahmadzai has been replaced by General Hebatullah Alizai as the new Afghanistan army chief. He had only been in the post since June.

His successor will have to deal with escalating violence across the country, as the Taliban continue their offensive now that foreign troops have all but withdrawn.

President Ashraf Ghani flew to Mazar-i-Sharif to rally old warlords to the defence of the biggest city in the north. President Ghani with ethnic Uzbek warlord Abdul Rashid Dostum and prominent ethnic Tajik leader Atta Mohammad Noor about defending the city.

Dostum, a veteran commander, was quoted as saying: “The Taliban have come to the north several times but they were always trapped.” Dostum is also accused of war crime and other atrocities as he fought against the Taliban in the 1990s, 

No regrets

US President Joe Biden urged Afghan leaders to fight for their homeland, saying he did not regret his decision to withdraw. He noted that the US had spent more than $1 trillion over 20 years and lost thousands of troops.

The United States was providing significant air support, food, equipment and salaries to Afghan forces. He will complete the withdrawal of its forces this month in exchange for Taliban promises to prevent Afghanistan being used for international terrorism.

Fear of return to power

The Taliban advances have raised fears of a return to power of the hardline militants who emerged in the early 1990s from the chaos of civil war. A new generation of Afghans, who have come of age since 2001, fears that the progress made in areas such as women’s rights and media freedom will be squandered.

During their previous rule, the Taliban were never completely in control of the north but this time they seem intent on securing it before closing in on the capital. In the south, government forces were battling Taliban fighters around the city of Kandahar, the former bastion of the Taliban.

The question remains if and when the Taliban will regain control of Kabul and topple Ashraf Ghani’s government. 

 

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