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ISLAMABAD: The finance ministry has rejected the World Bank’s projection about Pakistan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate for current and upcoming fiscal year saying it was based on unrealistic assessment and that the GDP growth rate for fiscal year 2021-22 would go up close to 5% against the WB’s forecast of 3.4%.
Referring to a recent report published by the World Bank, the ministry of finance and revenue said that the World Bank’s growth estimates of 3.5 % in FY2021 against National Accounts (NAC) Committee estimates of 3.94 %, released by the PBS were also based on unrealistic assessment.
The provisional estimate of GDP growth for FY 2021 was 3.94% based on 2.8 % growth in Agriculture, 3.6% growth in Industry and 4.4% growth in services.
However, LSM growth was provisionally taken as 9.3 % in NA for estimating GDP growth 3.94%. LSM data is available with two months lag and the recent data released by PBS on LSM recorded growth of 15.2 % for FY 2021, a statement issued by the finance ministry said.
Further, recent data on crops mentioned by Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) suggest that production of important crops is higher than taken in NA, 2021.
Wheat production is recorded at 27.5 million tons as compared to 27.3 million tons, while production of Maize is 8.9 million against 8.5 million tons released by PBS for estimating GDP growth 3.94%.
“After incorporating latest available information, the GDP growth in FY2021 will improve further above 3.94% as compared to 3.5% estimates by the World Bank,” the statement said.
For FY2022, WB projection of 3.4 % for GDP growth is again underestimated. It is pertinent to mention that economy of Pakistan has shown V shaped recovery in FY2021 without creating any external and internal imbalances.
