Although the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P) has emerged as the fourth-largest party in the February 8 general elections, winning most seats in Karachi and Hyderabad, its bargaining position for key posts in the government is weak compared to the past.
The number of MQM-P Seats:
MQM-P won 17 seats in the National Assembly and 28 in the Sindh Assembly in the 2024 general elections. In the 2018 general elections, the party had secured 6 National Assembly seats and 16 Sindh Assembly seats.
Why is the Party’s Position Weak?
In 2018, despite having only 7 seats in the National Assembly (6 general seats and 1 reserved seat), MQM-P played a crucial role as a kingmaker party. However, this time, despite winning more seats, MQM-P does not hold the same pivotal position, as PML-N and PPP can form a government in the Center without relying on MQM-P.
Position in the Center:
PML-N and PPP have announced plans to form a coalition government in the Center. PML-N has 79 NA seats, PPP has 54 seats, and the total seats of both parties add up to a simple majority. Additionally, PML-Q and BAP hold 4 seats, supporting the coalition government.
Position in Sindh:
In the Sindh Assembly, PPP has secured a record 84 general seats out of 130, placing it in a strong position to form a government without MQM-P’s support. Consequently, MQM-P is likely to sit in the opposition in the province.
Will MQM-P be Part of the Federal Government?
Shehbaz Sharif will probably include MQM-P in the central government; however, the party might be allocated only one ministerial position in the cabinet. In 2018, despite having only 7 seats, MQM-P had three ministers in the federal cabinet, including the law minister.
Ultimatum politics will not work anymore:
In the past, MQM-P was known for giving ultimatums and threatening to quit the government to make it fulfill its demands. However, even if it becomes part of the central government, the party will not enjoy the same influential position as before.
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