Is India preparing to cut off water to Bangladesh?

After unilaterally suspending the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan, India’s hardline Modi government is reportedly preparing to halt water flow to Bangladesh as well.

According to Indian media, experts in Bangladesh have raised serious concerns. They assert that if India can unilaterally suspend an international agreement like the Indus Waters Treaty, it may not hesitate to violate the Ganges Water Sharing Agreement either.

Noted water expert Nutan Manmohan warned that India’s actions could pose a serious threat to itself, especially as the new interim government in Bangladesh—following the end of Sheikh Hasina’s term—has strengthened diplomatic ties with China and Pakistan.

The Ganges Water Sharing Agreement, signed on December 12, 1996, during the first term of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her Indian counterpart H.D. Deve Gowda, guarantees a minimum water flow to Bangladesh during dry seasons.

The agreement has a 30-year term and is due for renewal in 2026 through mutual consent.

Manmohan noted that since the treaty is up for renewal next year, India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty raises concerns about its willingness to honor water-sharing commitments with Bangladesh.

Similarly, Uttam Sinha of the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) stated that the success of future negotiations with neighboring countries—including over the Ganges Treaty—depends heavily on the current political climate.

Article XII of the 1996 agreement clearly states that the treaty shall remain in force for 30 years from the date of signing and may be renewed only through mutual agreement. Importantly, this renewal is not automatic, and either party may opt out if it deems renewal unnecessary.

In recent weeks, there have been high-level diplomatic engagements between Pakistan and Bangladesh, including a meeting between the two countries’ foreign secretaries in Dhaka. A planned visit by Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar to Bangladesh was postponed, reportedly due to India’s escalating hostility and anti-Pakistan rhetoric.

Experts believe that India’s actions are an attempt to divert attention from its failures regarding Pakistan, growing resistance in Kashmir, and increasing diplomatic isolation. Indian authorities have yet to provide any credible evidence to support the allegations that triggered the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty. Nonetheless, the move to “punish” Pakistan reflects the mindset of the Indian leadership.